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TREASURIES-Bonds recover from Friday's sell-off
September 17, 2012 / 2:07 PM / in 5 years

TREASURIES-Bonds recover from Friday's sell-off

* Longer-dated yields recede from four-month highs
    * New York Fed business index lowest since April 2009

    By Richard Leong
    NEW YORK, Sept 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose
on Monday, recovering from Friday's sell-off tied to inflation
fears, stemming from a third round of planned bond purchases by
the Federal Reserve, and reduced safety bids on optimism about
the European debt crisis.
    Longer-dated yields retreated from their highest levels
since May, set on Friday, as bargain-hunting emerged when stock
markets took a pause from last week's rally.
    Weaker U.S. economic data and concerns about slowing growth
in China also revived some bids for bonds, pushing yields lower.
    "Rates will grind lower in the short term because economic
data will remain tepid," said Eric Green, global head of rates
and FX research and strategy with TD Securities in New York.
    The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its measure on
regional business activities unexpectedly worsened in September,
falling to its lowest level since April 2009. 
    Investors have been assessing the longer-term impact of the
open-ended bond buying programs from the Federal Reserve and the
European Central Bank with the goals of lowering unemployment
and averting a regional recession, respectively.
    They are concerned that by injecting more cash into the
banking system, the two central banks are hurting their
currencies and will have a tougher time containing inflation
once economic growth normalizes.
    The Federal Reserve said last Thursday it will buy $40
billion a month in mortgage-backed bonds on an open-ended basis,
its third round of bond buying or quantitative easing, dubbed
QE3. It also prolonged its pledge to near-zero interest rates
into mid-2015 from late 2014..
    "The Fed is tolerating higher inflation by pushing real
yields," Green said.
    This perception has fueled a rally in Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities since the Fed began QE3 on
    The yield premiums, or inflation breakeven rates, on regular
Treasuries over TIPS jumped broadly. The 10-year TIPS breakeven
rate which gauges investors inflation expectations touched 2.64
percentage points on Friday, the highest since April 2011,
according to Reuters data.
    The 10-year breakeven rate was 2.62 points early Monday.
    Another indicator that showed growing inflation concerns
among investors was a steepening yield curve or widening spreads
between shorter- and longer-dated yields.
    The spread between five-year and 30-year yields ended at
2.37 percentage points on Friday, the widest since Sept 2011. It
was last 2.36 points early Monday.
    The 30-year bond last traded up 17/32 at
93-28/32 after losing 3 points on Friday. The 30-year yield was
3.062 percent, down 3 basis points from late on Friday.
    Benchmark 10-year notes were up 5/32 at
97-31/32, yielding 1.849 percent, down 2 basis points from
    Trading volume was lighter-than-usual due to a holiday in
Japan and the Jewish New Year.

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