* 2012 inflation outlook jumps to 3.81 percent from 3.65
* Growth outlook this year steady, 2013 estimates slip
* Manufacturing PMI edges up slightly in June
MEXICO CITY, July 2 (Reuters) - Analysts watching Mexico’s economy sharply lifted their forecast for inflation this year, the central bank said on Monday, following a sharp slump in the peso currency.
The central bank’s poll of analysts showed they expected a 3.81 percent rise in consumer prices this year, up from a 3.65 percent increase expected in the last monthly poll.
Mexico’s annual inflation rate hit a 1-1/2-year high of 4.30 percent in early June, above the central bank’s ceiling of 4 percent.
But the Banco de Mexico is seen keeping interest rates steady at 4.5 percent into mid-2014 as it eyes the risk of slowing growth, which would cool price pressures..
The economy accelerated at the start of 2012 but data suggest growth easing in the second quarter. Manufacturing activity picked up in June after a dip the previous month, but remains below April levels, a separate survey showed.
A sharp slump in the peso during the second quarter raised concerns among policymakers that higher import prices could push up inflation further.
The currency has reversed much of its slide, bouncing back about 9 percent from a three-year low hit on June 1. But concerns of slowing global growth could keep the currency pressured this year.
Analysts saw a weaker peso by year-end, calling for a rate of 13.22 per dollar versus 13.02 per dollar in the last poll.
Inflation estimates for 2013 ticked up to 3.69 percent from 3.65 percent.
The poll showed forecasts for 3.72 percent economic growth this year, unchanged from the last poll, and analysts trimmed their growth forecast for 2013 from 3.50 percent to 3.42 percent.
Slowing job growth in the United States could crimp the demand for Mexican exports going forward, but Mexico’s central bank chief said last month the economy could still grow nearly 4 percent this year if U.S. growth holds up.
The HSBC Mexico Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.9 in June from 55.2 in May, after adjusting for seasonal variation. A reading above 50 in the survey, which measures business conditions in the industrial sector, indicates the pace of growth from the previous month.
Total new orders rose for the month, continuing an unbroken trend since the series began in April 2011 and new export orders increased as well. “The manufacturing sector ... continues to show resilience to external headwinds,” Sergio Martin, chief economist at HSBC in Mexico said in a statement.