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Oil report

Russian Econ Ministry sees 2020 GDP down 3.9% in improved forecast - draft

    MOSCOW, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Russia's Economy Ministry expects the country's
gross domestic product to contract 3.9% this year, less than a previously
expected fall of 4.8%, a revised ministry draft forecast seen by Reuters showed,
thanks to higher oil prices.
    The novel coronavirus pandemic led to a lockdown for over two months earlier
this year, hitting the economy. Restrictions have hit household incomes along
with consumption and are the main factor behind the GDP contraction, the
document showed. 
    The Economy Ministry declined to comment. Below are new economic forecasts
from the document: 
   
                         2020      2021      2022     2023      2019 *
     Urals oil, $        41.8      45.3      46.6     47.5       63.8
     USD/RUB rate        70.7      71.7      72.3     73.0       64.7
 Year-end inflation,     3.8       3.7       4.0       4.0       3.0
          %                                                   
   GDP dynamics, %       -3.9      3.3       3.4       3.0       1.3
 Industrial output, %    -4.1      2.6       3.6       2.3       2.3
   Real disposable       -3.0      3.0       2.4       2.5       1.0
      incomes, %                                              
 Unemployment rate, %    5.7       5.2       4.7       4.6       4.6
  Oil output, mln T     507.4     517.8     552.4     560.0     560.8
   Gas output, bln      690.8     728.4     770.1     795.6     738.4
     cubic metres                                             
 * Factual reading for 2019
    

 (Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya;
Writing by Katya Golubkova;
Editing by Alison Williams and Hugh Lawson)
  
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