LONDON (Reuters) - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Monday forecast a global sugar surplus of 1.83 million tonnes in the 2018/19 season, up from a previous estimate of 641,000 tonnes.
The increase reflects “spectacular” production in India and Thailand as well as a diminished outlook for sugar consumption, the inter-governmental body said in a quarterly report.
“At this late stage of the crop cycle, the world sugar economy has managed to generate some late-season surprises, worsening the fundamental picture,” the ISO said.
Global sugar production in 2018/19 (October/September) was seen at 178.75 million tonnes, marginally above a previous projection of 178.68 million, with a decrease in output in Brazil helping to limit the extent of the rise.
Expected sugar consumption in 2018/19 was revised down to 176.91 million tonnes, from the previous forecast of 178.04 million tonnes.
A shift to a global deficit of about 3 million tonnes was provisionally seen for 2019/20.
“It has to be stressed that any price recovery on the back of a statistical deficit of this magnitude might be muted by the huge stocks accumulated since the beginning of the surplus phase in 2017/18,” the ISO said.
Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by David Goodman