September 10, 2019 / 11:23 AM / 3 months ago

Brexit: Julius Baer cuts chances of Halloween no-deal Brexit to 10%

FILE PHOTO: The logo of Swiss private bank Julius Baer is pictured on the company's branch in Lausanne November 13, 2014. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

LONDON (Reuters) - Julius Baer has cut its estimate that the probability Britain will crash out of the European Union on Oct. 31 to 10% and sees the chance of a delay to the process at 75%, it said on Tuesday as the options left to Prime Minister Boris Johnson dwindled.

In the longer term, the fate of Brexit will be decided in a general election, said Patrik Lang, head of equities research at Julius Baer, noting there is a chance that the Conservative Party will become the largest party, but not necessarily win a majority.

As a result, he sees the longer term probability of a hard Brexit at 35%, with the chances of a deal with Brussels being struck at 50%.

Reporting by Josephine Mason, editin by Karin Strohecker

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