LONDON (Reuters) - Economists at HSBC on Wednesday raised their forecast for global growth and inflation over the next two years based on robust manufacturing activity, a resilient China and above all the fiscal boost expected to come in the United States.
It was the first time in nearly five years they have upped their growth and inflation outlooks over a two-year horizon as 2017 gets underway and as investors prepare for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump entering the White House.
The British economy appears to be in ruder health than had been anticipated expected following the country’s decision in June to leave the European Union, while Japan, Germany and Spain are also looking brighter, HSBC said.
The bank now sees the global economy expanding at a 2.5 percent pace this year compared its with 2.3 percent forecast in September, and 2.6 percent next year, up from September’s 2.5 percent.
Global inflation looks set to be 3.0 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year, compared with their previous forecasts of 2.7 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, the bank said.
“All of the above help explain why we can offer a rare treat: for the first time since early 2012, we are increasing our forecasts for both global growth and inflation for the next two years,” the bank’s team of economists led by Janet Henry, chief global economist, said in a note.
“Unfortunately, it is still a world where global growth is likely to hover around the mediocre growth rates of the past few years.”
Among the most notable changes to the growth forecasts: U.S. economy next year 2.7 percent versus 2.2 percent; UK growth this year 1.2 percent vs 0.7 percent; Japan 1.2 percent this year vs 0.9 percent.
Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt