NEW YORK (Reuters) - Steven Einhorn, vice chairman of hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc, said the 2016 U.S. presidential race posed a risk to U.S. equities, while Blackstone vice chairman Tom Hill said oil would rise above $60 three years from now.
Luke Ellis, president of Man Group, said there remained an array of investing opportunities in China and other emerging markets and that China, Europe and Japan would likely maintain their commitments to easy money policies.
Those were some of the highlights from Day 1 of the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit, where investors spoke on topics such as the impact of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in December and their top investing strategies for 2015.
STEVEN EINHORN, vice chairman of Omega Advisors Inc
Einhorn said the likelihood of intensifying criticism from 2016 U.S. presidential candidates on business practices posed a risk to the U.S. equity market over the next year. He cited Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s comments on drug pricing.
“A lot of this is politics rather than economics, with the notion that you can now paint the pharmaceutical industry along with Wall Street as evil, and now the Democrats have two industries they can focus on: Wall Street and pharma, as opposed to just Wall Street,” Einhorn said.
“That populist approach to the economy will not fade, it will only get more intense, and that is a risk certainly to the equity market in the U.S. over the course of the next year.”
TOM HILL, vice chairman of Blackstone
Hill said oil prices would exceed $60 a barrel three years from now and said hedge funds that cannot beat the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index should not exist.
“Do we think oil is going down to 20? We’re not saying it’s impossible, but one thing we’re absolute certain of: It won’t stay there,” Hill said. “Our view is that, three years from now, oil will be above $60.” U.S. crude prices were last up 2.5 percent at $41.76 a barrel on Monday.
On the HFRI index, a widely watched performance gauge for the $3 trillion global hedge fund industry, Hill said: “If you can’t beat the HFRI index, forget it, you shouldn’t even be in the business.”
LUKE ELLIS, president of Man Group
Ellis, whose firm managed $76.8 billion at the end of September to make it the world’s largest listed hedge fund, said China, Europe and Japan all remained committed to money printing and fearful of deflation, which suggested little chance of a major unexpected policy tightening.
“All three of those look like they are going to keep the taps going as hard as they can, which allows for a certain tightening in U.S fiscal policy without making much difference to the big picture,” Ellis said.
On the outlook for the Fed and what its chair, Janet Yellen, will do, he said: “It’s very likely she’ll raise 25 bps” in December, adding, “It’s very likely it doesn’t matter in the slightest.”
While the market’s consensus ‘buy’ on the dollar was logical, investors needed to trade it carefully, he said.
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Reporting by Simon Jessop, Svea Herbst-Bayliss, Lawrence Delevingne, Jennifer Ablan and Jonathan Stempel; Editing by Leslie Adler