June 10, 2020 / 1:06 PM / a month ago

Romanian macroeconomic indicators and interest rate forecasts: Reuters poll

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - The median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts puts Romanian inflation at 2.4% year-on-year in May, down from April’s 2.7%.

Analysts expect inflation to reach 2.8% at the end of this year, in line with the central bank’s latest forecast. The bank targets inflation at 1.5%-3.5%.

Four of seven analysts expect the central bank to hold its benchmark interest rate at 1.75% at its next meeting, most likely in July. The bank has not had a fixed meetings calendar from the onset of the coronavirus epidemic.

The median forecast for the key rate at the end of the year is 1.50%, with four of seven analysts predicting further cuts. Analysts expect the consolidated budget deficit to widen to 7.9% of GDP this year and the economy to contract 5.1%.

Reporting by Luiza Ilie

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