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Oil report

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures ease from 19-month high on lower demand forecasts

 (Adds latest prices)
    Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday from a 19-month high in the prior
session as output started to rise after Hurricane Delta and on forecasts for less demand over the next
two weeks than previously expected.
    That price drop came despite a continued increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG)
export plants now that all facilities were ramping up following hurricane and maintenance shutdowns
over the past few weeks.
    Front-month gas futures fell 2.6 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.855 per million British
thermal units. On Monday, the contract closed at its highest level since March 2019.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states jumped to 84.1 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) on Monday from a 26-month low of 82.4 bcfd over the weekend as wells shut for Delta
returned to service.
    As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump
from 84.6 bcfd this week to 92.6 bcfd next week. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv's forecast on
Monday.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September, despite several hurricane and maintenance outages this month.
    That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month
in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas
prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations.
    Prior to that, U.S. exports fell every month from March to July as coronavirus-related demand
destruction caused prices in Europe and Asia to collapse and buyers to cancel over
150 cargoes.
                    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 9         Oct 2         Oct 9      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 9     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +63           +75          +102        +87 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             167           161          190         125          147
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             40             41           37          45           33
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             207           202          227         160          180
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.8           83.3         83.4        94.9         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.7           6.3          6.3         7.3          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.5           89.7         89.7       102.2         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2           2.3          2.3         2.1          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.9           6.1          6.0         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          7.1           6.4          8.0         6.6          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           6.0           5.7          8.0         7.2          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          6.2           5.5          10.0        8.6          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         31.2           30.8         28.9        28.9         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          22.2           21.8         23.1        22.2         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.1          4.1         4.1          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          2.0         1.9          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.8           69.9         76.4        73.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        87.0           84.6         92.6        87.3         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.31           2.25                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.24           0.52                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.21           3.87                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.06           0.57                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.75           1.23                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.33           0.74                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          5.55           1.90                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.20           0.66 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             33.75         19.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                22.58         14.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             27.50         45.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   28.25         30.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              51.00         36.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   53.75         29.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York
Editing by Paul Simao and Matthew Lewis)
  
 
 
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