July 14, 2020 / 6:54 PM / a month ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures edge up on hot weather forecasts, rising pipeline exports

 (Adds latest prices)
    July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged higher on
Tuesday on forecasts for more hot weather and higher cooling
demand over the next two weeks and an increase in pipeline
exports to Canada and Mexico.
    Traders noted prices were up even though output continued to
rise slowly and liquefied natural gas exports (LNG) remained at
their lowest since early 2018 due to a global hit to demand from
the coronavirus pandemic.
    Front-month gas futures rose 0.7 cents, or 0.4%, to
settle at $1.746 per million British thermal units.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states
averaged 88.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July,
up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below
the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, will rise
from 90.4 bcfd this week to 92.9 bcfd next week. That was higher
than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just
3.2 bcfd (33% utilization) so far in July, down from a 20-month
low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in
February. Utilization was about 90% in 2019. Flows to Freeport
in Texas held at zero for an eighth straight day for the first
time since July 2019 when the first of its three liquefaction
trains was in test mode.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in
neighboring countries cranked up their air conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.5 bcfd
so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in June, but still below the
all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports
to Mexico averaged 5.5 bcfd this month, up from 5.4 bcfd in
June, but below the record 5.6 bcfd in March.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 10         Jul 3        Jul 10     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 10    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +43            +56          +67         +63      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              2              2            2           4            2
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             252            247          220         206          202
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             254            249          222         210          204
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.2           87.9         87.9        89.1         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.6            7.1          7.0         8.2          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.9           95.0         94.8        97.3         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.6          2.5         2.6          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.4            5.6          5.5         4.7          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.1            3.4          3.6         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.7           42.9         45.3        42.3         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.5         21.5        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.2         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.4           78.9         81.3        78.2         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         89.4           90.4         92.9        91.4         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.75           1.79                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.68           1.67                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.69           2.71                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.31           1.22                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.71           1.69                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.50           1.52                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.31           2.16                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.39           1.57                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.75          25.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                30.50          28.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             25.50          40.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   17.67          19.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              46.75          69.33                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   32.00          42.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum and
Tom Brown)
  
 
 
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