July 24, 2020 / 7:21 PM / in 18 days

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures edge up to two-week high on hotter midday forecasts

 (Adds latest prices)
    July 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a
two-week high on Friday on rising pipeline exports and forecasts
calling for hotter weather and higher-than-expected air
conditioning demand over the next two weeks.
    Front-month gas futures rose 2.3 cents, or 1.3%, to
settle at $1.808 per million British thermal units, their
highest since July 8. For the week, the contract gained about 5%
after falling almost 5% last week.
    As the U.S. Atlantic hurricane season ramps up, Tropical
Storm Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico and was expected to hit
South Texas over the weekend. Additionally, Tropical Storm
Gonzalo was expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it churns
from the Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea.

    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states
averaged 88.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, up from
a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the
all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will
slide from 92.7 bcfd this week to 91.4 bcfd next week before
rising to 93.4 bcfd in two weeks as hot weather returns.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged
3.4 bcfd (35% utilization) in July, down from a 20-month low of
4.1 bcfd in June and a record 8.7 bcfd in February.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in
neighboring countries cranked up their air conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.4 bcfd
so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in June, but still below the
all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports
to Mexico averaged 5.63 bcfd so far this month, up from 5.44
bcfd in June and on track to top the record 5.55 bcfd in March.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 24         Jul 17       Jul 24     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 24    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +29            +37          +56         +33      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            2           4            2
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             235            236          220         206          201
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             236            237          222         210          203
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.0           89.0         88.6        90.3         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  7.0            6.8          7.0         8.1          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.0           95.8         95.5        98.4         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.5            2.4          2.5         2.7          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.7            5.8          5.7         5.1          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.4            3.7          3.5         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          43.3           44.9         43.8        40.4         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.4         21.4        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.1         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    79.2           80.8         79.7        76.4         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.8           92.7         91.4        90.3         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.75           1.69                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.74           1.75                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.37           2.39                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.20           1.23                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.65           1.59                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.51           1.57                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.67           1.74                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.30           1.19                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             28.25          28.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                27.75          30.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             42.50          31.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   15.57          14.14                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              19.00          23.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   22.75          23.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Tom
Brown)
  
 
 
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