July 13, 2020 / 7:07 PM / a month ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures fall over 3% on rising output, less hot weather

 (Adds latest prices, pipeline exports)
    July 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Monday on rising output and forecasts
for less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
    Traders noted that prices declined despite a drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports this month
to their lowest since early 2018 due to global coronavirus demand destruction.
    Front-month gas futures fell 6.6 cents, or 3.7%, to settle at $1.739 per million British
thermal units.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 88.1 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in July, up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, will rise from 90.4 bcfd this week to 92.2 bcfd
next week. That, however, was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just 3.2 bcfd (33% utilization) so far in
July, down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
Utilization was about 90% in 2019. Flows to Freeport in Texas held at zero for a seventh day for the
first time since July 2019 when the first of its three liquefaction trains was in test mode.

    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in neighboring countries cranked up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.5 bcfd so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in
June, but still below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports to Mexico
averaged 5.5 bcfd this month, up from 5.4 bcfd in June, but below the record 5.6 bcfd in March.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 10         Jul 3        Jul 10     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 10    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +43            +56          +67         +63      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              2              1            2           4            3
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             247            257          220         206          201
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             249            258          222         210          204
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.2           87.9         87.6        89.1         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.6            7.0          6.7         8.2          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.9           94.8         94.4        97.3         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.6          2.5         2.6          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.4            5.5          5.5         4.7          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.1            3.3          3.5         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.7           43.1         44.9        42.3         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.5         21.5        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.2         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.4           79.0         80.8        78.2         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         89.4           90.4         92.2        91.4         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.79           1.88                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.67           1.75                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.71           2.68                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.22           1.38                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.69           1.80                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.52           1.69                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.16           2.25                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.57           1.65                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.50          22.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                28.25          32.60                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             40.50          35.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   19.00          16.39                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              69.33          43.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   42.00          40.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Richard Chang)
  
 
 
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