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Oil report

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures slip as power generators burn more coal

 (Adds closing prices)
    Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday on forecasts for demand to decline in
early November when gas price increases were expected to cause power generators to burn more coal and
less gas to produce electricity.
    Front-month gas futures fell 3.6 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $2.971 per million British
thermal units (mmBtu).
    Earlier in the week, the contract closed at its highest since January 2019 on rising liquefied
natural gas (LNG) exports and slowing output.
    For the week, the front-month was on track to gain about 7%, putting it up for a fifth week in a
row for the first time since November 2018.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.4 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) so far in October. That would be the lowest in a month since October 2018. Output hit an
all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
    Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 89.9 bcfd this week to 97.5 bcfd next week
before easing to 97.1 bcfd in two weeks when power generators were expected to burn less gas.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 7.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September.
    That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month
in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas
prices prompt buyers to reverse past cargo cancellations.
    Gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia traded at their highest since November 2019
and October 2019, respectively, putting both more than $2 per mmBtu over the U.S. Henry Hub.
    U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, averaged 6.037 bcfd so far in October, topping
September's 6.022-bcfd record.
            
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 23        Oct 16        Oct 23     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 23    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +40           +49          +89         +67 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             216           213          173         145          190
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             26             29           28          31           22
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             242           242          201         176          212
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             84.7           88.5         88.1        95.7         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.2           5.9          6.2         7.4          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        90.9           94.3         94.3       103.1         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2           2.3          2.3         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2           6.1          6.1         5.4          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.5           7.7          8.1         6.9          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.8           7.1          9.4         7.5          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          5.6           8.2          12.8        9.2          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           29.4         28.4        28.8         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.9           22.6         23.7        22.1         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.4          4.4         4.3          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           2.0          2.2         2.0          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.4           73.9         80.9        74.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.2           89.9         97.5        88.7         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.99           2.95                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.78           0.90                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.18           4.24                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.67           0.73                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          2.96           2.71                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.15           1.12                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.05           4.38                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.14           1.07 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             24.50         30.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                27.00         29.08                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             23.75         30.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   38.70         50.42                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              36.50         45.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   47.25         49.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski and Chizu Nomiyama)
  
 
 
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