July 28, 2020 / 6:51 PM / 9 days ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas jumps 4% as pipeline exports rise despite less hot weather forecasts

 (Adds closing prices)
    July 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 4% on Tuesday as pipeline exports
increase despite forecasts for less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand over the next two
weeks than previously expected.
    On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for August delivery rose 6.6 cents,
or 3.8%, to settle at $1.800 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That erased much of Monday's 4%
loss.
    September futures, which will soon be the front-month, were up about 7 cents to $1.86 per
mmBtu.
    Even though the hottest days of summer are likely past, meteorologists project temperatures will
remain above-normal in the Lower 48 U.S. states through at least mid August. The weather has already
been hotter-than-normal every day since late June.
    Refinitiv said U.S. production averaged 88.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, up from a
20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in
November.
    Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will slide from 91.0 bcfd this week to 89.9 bcfd
next week. That is lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 3.3 bcfd (34% utilization) so far in July,
down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record 8.7 bcfd in February. Utilization was about
90% in 2019.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in neighboring countries cranked up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.4 bcfd so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in
June, but still below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports to Mexico
averaged 5.62 bcfd so far this month, up from 5.44 bcfd in June and on track to top the record 5.55 bcfd
in March.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 24         Jul 17       Jul 24     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 24    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +29            +37          +56         +33      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            1           3            2
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             225            228          219         207          199
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             226            229          220         210          201
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              89.0           89.0         88.9        91.4         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.8            6.8          6.9         8.1          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.8           95.8         95.8        98.4         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.4          2.4         2.6          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.8            5.7          5.6         5.1          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.7            3.2          4.2         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          44.9           43.8         41.7        41.6         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.4           21.4         21.4        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.2            2.1          2.1         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    80.8           79.7         77.7        77.6         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         92.7           91.0         89.9        91.2         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.85           1.77                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.89           1.78                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.58           2.41                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.32           1.24                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.71           1.66                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.73           1.72                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.35           1.68                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 0.97           1.09                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             46.25          28.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                41.25          32.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             25.50          26.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   24.42          44.20                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              45.30          24.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   37.25          25.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Marguerita Choy)
  
 
 
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