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Oil report

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas little changed as rising output offsets jump in LNG exports

 (Adds latest prices)
    Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Wednesday as rising production and
forecasts for lower air conditioning demand in late September offset a jump in liquefied natural gas
exports and record sales to Mexico.
    After dropping over 7% on Tuesday, front-month gas futures rose 0.6 cents, or 0.3%, to
settle at $2.406 per million British thermal units on Wednesday.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to rise to 87.9
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, up from a three-month low of 87.6 bcfd in August. That,
however, was still well below November's all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd.
    With exports rising and expectations for warm weather through mid September, Refinitiv projected
U.S. demand would rise from an average of 84.0 bcfd this week to 85.8 bcfd next week. That is higher
than Tuesday's forecast.
    In late September, however, demand is expected to decline as air conditioning use drops with the
weather forecast to turn seasonably cooler.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals soared by a record 1.8 bcfd on Tuesday as
Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana continues to ramp up after shutting in
late August for Hurricane Laura. Average flows so far in September were 4.1 bcfd.
    That puts gas piped to LNG plants on track to rise for a second month in a row in September for the
first time since February when average flows hit a record 8.7 bcfd. Coronavirus demand destruction
caused U.S. LNG exports to drop every month from March to July when flows to plants fell to a 21-month
low of just 3.3 bcfd as buyers canceled cargoes.
    U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, were on track to rise to 6.1 bcfd in September, which
would top August's 5.9-bcfd record.
        
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Sep 4         Aug 28       Sep 4      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 4     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +68           +35          +80         +68 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             31             26           10          24           33
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             120           124          164         130          110
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             151           150          174         154          143
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             87.0           88.3         88.4        93.2         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.3           5.7          6.6         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        93.3           94.0         95.1       101.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.1          2.1         2.4          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2           6.0          6.0         5.4          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          2.9           4.8          6.5         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6           4.8          4.8         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.7           3.9          4.0         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         38.1           34.4         34.5        37.5         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.4        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.0           1.9          1.9         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   74.3           71.1         71.2        73.6         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           84.0         85.8        87.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.35           1.80                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.73           1.38                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.56           3.67                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.54           1.34                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.98           1.96                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        2.33           1.75                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.23           7.97                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.88           1.69 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             35.50         20.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                25.50         21.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             18.50         25.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   38.00         37.40                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              31.75         120.00                             
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   34.75         102.00                             
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski and Richard Chang)
  
 
 
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