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Oil report

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas slips, but posts best month since 2009

 (Updates with closing prices, comment, details)
    Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Monday, retreating from an over nine-month high
scaled in the last session, as weather forecasts turned cooler, although prices registered their best
month since 2009 on a surge in LNG exports.
    Front-month gas futures fell 2.7 cents, or 1%, to settle at $2.630 per million British
thermal units. Prices had touched their highest since early November at $2.743 on Friday.
    "There is a weather change. It is going to be cooler-than-normal, which is going to reduce demand,"
Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago said, adding that less-than-anticipated
damage from Hurricane Laura and slower exports because of the storms is also weighing on prices.
    However, for the month, prices were up about 46%, the most since September 2009, propped up by a
surge in LNG exports and on concerns about tropical storms. 
    Refinitiv data indicated 151 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two
weeks, declining from 175 CDDs in the prior day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average
temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool
homes and businesses.
    Prices had earlier declined as much as 6%, but the market pared losses on concerns of another
tropical disturbance which is beginning to form in the Caribbean and could cap production, advisory firm
Ritterbusch said in a note.
    U.S. output rose to 87 bcfd on Sunday as many wells in the Gulf resumed operations after Laura,
preliminary data from Refinitiv showed.
    U.S. Gulf Coast offshore producers on Sunday reported 50%, or 1.35 billion cubic feet, of natural
gas output was offline due to the storm.
    Demand in the Lower 48 states is expected to decline as the weather turns cooler, falling from 85.8
bcfd this week to 82 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv.
            
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Aug 28         Aug 21       Aug 28     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Aug 28    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +37            +45          +77         +66 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              19             12           7           17           17
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             151            175          180         147          138
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             170            187          187         164          155
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              86.5           86.5         86.5        92.7         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  7.0            6.6          6.9         7.7          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.6           93.1         93.4       100.4         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    1.9            2.0          1.9         3.1          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2            6.0          5.8         5.5          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.8            2.9          4.1         6.5          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.6          4.8         4.5          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.6            3.7          3.9         3.6          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.4           38.8         33.6        33.9         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.5         21.7        21.5         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.0          1.9         2.1          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.5           75.0         70.2        70.0         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.4           85.8         82.0        85.1         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.46           2.52                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.07           1.62                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.54           3.56                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.04           1.20                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.17           2.28                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.22           1.35                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           3.79           4.05                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.36           1.07 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             28.25          23.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                29.50          31.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             60.50          54.38                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   32.33          20.75                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              42.50          63.75                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   41.50          64.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama)
  
 
 
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