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Oil report

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas futures fall to four-week low on mild weather forecasts

 (Adds after hours trade, latest on power outages from Sally)
    Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell 4% to a
four-week low on Wednesday on forecasts for milder weather and
lower cooling demand over the next two weeks.
    The price decline came despite a continued rise in liquefied
natural gas exports and a drop in output to its lowest in two
years as producers shut wells for Hurricane Sally.
    Sally, now a tropical storm, knocked out power to around
570,000 homes and businesses in Alabama and Florida after
smashing into the Alabama coast early Wednesday. The storm is
expected to stay far from LNG export plants as it moves toward
Georgia and South Carolina.

    Front-month gas futures fell 9.5 cents, or 4.0%, to
settle at $2.267 per million British thermal units, their lowest
since Aug. 13. After the close, prices fell over 5%.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S.
states was on track to fall to 84.1 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd), its lowest since August 2018, due to Sally-related
shutdowns. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental
Enforcement (BSEE) said 0.8 bcfd, or 30%, of Gulf of Mexico gas
production was shut-in.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand,
including exports, would fall from 85.2 bcfd this week to 81.8
bcfd next week.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants,
meanwhile, averaged 5.3 bcfd so far in September. That was the
most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row
for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February
as global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas more attractive
following months of U.S. cargo cancellations due to coronavirus
demand destruction.
    Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana, however, remained
shut since Aug. 27 due to lingering power outages from Hurricane
Laura. Some analysts say the plant could be getting closer to
returning to service.
                                 
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 11         Sep 4        Sep 11     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 11    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +70           +70          +82         +77 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             40             43           14          24           51
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             80             81          149         130           89
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             120           124          163         154          140
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             88.4           86.4         86.6        93.3         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.8           5.9          6.6         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        94.2           92.3         93.2       100.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.1          2.1         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.8          6.1         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.8           6.9          6.9         6.5          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.8           4.9          5.3         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0           4.2          4.9         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         34.3           33.6         28.7        35.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.5         21.7        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4           4.3          4.3         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          1.8         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.0           70.4         66.8        71.3         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        84.0           85.2         81.8        86.4         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.19           2.18                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.29           1.26                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.40           3.44                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.07           1.18                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.92           1.95                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.25           1.38                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.57           2.65                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.50           1.59 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.00         20.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                18.50         20.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             31.50         29.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   33.42         32.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              34.25         33.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   37.25         36.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski, Jonathan Oatis and Tom Brown)
  
 
 
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