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Oil report

UPDATE 3-U.S. natgas drops 3% on mild forecasts, LNG export hurricane worries

 (Adds latest prices)
    Oct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Tuesday on forecasts for milder weather
and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and worries Hurricane Delta could
disrupt liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
    That price decline came despite a rise in LNG exports so far this week and a drop in output as
producers shut Gulf of Mexico wells ahead of the storm.
    Delta is expected to slam into the Gulf Coast between Texas and Florida as a major hurricane on
Friday.
    Front-month gas futures fell 9.5 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $2.520 per million British
thermal units. Earlier in the day, the contract was on track for its highest close since November.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to drop from 86.9
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday to 84.2 bcfd on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2018 as
Gulf Coast producers shut-in wells. That data is preliminary and subject to change later in the day.
    The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said energy firms have already
shut-in about 0.2 bcfd, or 9%, of offshore gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.
    With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would slip from 86.0
bcfd this week to 85.8 bcfd next week. That was lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 7.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September, as vessels started returning to Cameron in Louisiana. Traders noted Cove Point in
Maryland was expected to exit its maintenance outage next week.
    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 2         Sep 25        Oct 2      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 2     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +77           +76          +102        +86 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             97             92           75          73          120
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             55             56           99          72           43
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             152           148          174         145          163
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.6           86.5         86.7        94.2         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.9           6.6          6.4         7.3          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.6           93.1         93.1       101.5         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.2          2.2         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.7          5.9         5.9          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.4           7.2          7.9         6.1          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.3           6.0          6.0         5.8          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.9           6.3          6.5         5.8          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.6           30.3         29.2        31.1         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.8           22.1         21.8        21.5         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.3          4.3         4.2          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.9          1.9         1.9          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.9           70.9         69.8        70.4         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        83.4           86.0         85.8        84.6         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.92           1.41                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.10           0.83                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.93           3.55                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.99           0.84                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.47           1.06                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.31           0.91                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.06           2.27                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.17           0.03 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.75         18.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                19.75         15.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             23.50         15.75                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   37.64         25.25                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              41.50         35.81                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   47.75         37.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Lisa Shumaker)
  
 
 
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