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Oil report

UPDATE 3-U.S. natgas jumps almost 16% from 7-wk low as demand and LNG exports rise

 (Adds latest prices)
    Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 16% on Wednesday from a seven-week low
in the prior session as output continues to slide, demand edges up and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports increase.
    Front-month gas futures rose 29.1 cents, or 15.9%, to settle at $2.125 per million British
thermal units in their biggest one-day percentage gain since early August. On Tuesday, the front-month
closed at its lowest since July 31 for a second day in a row.
    The market has already been extremely volatile this week - prices fell over 10% on Monday - as
traders roll out of front-month October contracts, which expire Sept. 28, and into the much higher
priced November futures. The premium of November over October NGV20-X20 reached a record high
of 89 cents per mmBtu earlier this week but was now down to a still historically high 67 cents.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall to 83.8
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, its lowest since August 2018. A price collapse earlier
this year due to coronavirus demand destruction prompted energy firms to reduce drilling by so much
that the amount of gas from new wells was no longer enough to cover declines from existing wells. The
rig count hit its lowest in at least 80 years in August.
    With low prices earlier in the week, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from
82.0 bcfd this week to 84.4 bcfd next week with electric generators expected to burn more gas instead
of coal to produce power.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to rise from a two-week low of 3.9 bcfd
on Tuesday to 4.0 bcfd on Wednesday as vessels started to enter ports in the Gulf of Mexico after
Tropical Storm Beta dissipated.
                                      
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 18        Sep 11        Sep 18     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 18    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +78           +89          +97         +80 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             57             48           37          52           73
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             84             85          137          91           70
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             141           133          174         143          143
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.4           85.6         85.7        93.7         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.7           5.5          6.1         8.1          8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.2           91.2         91.7       101.8         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.0          2.0         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.8           6.0          6.1         5.8          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.9           5.3          5.0         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.9           5.2          5.2         4.8          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.1           4.7          4.7         3.9          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         33.8           31.0         33.3        33.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.8        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.2          4.2         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.7           68.7         71.3        69.9         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           82.0         84.4        84.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.49           1.33                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.17           0.78                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.64           3.50                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.10           0.73                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.50           1.44                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.30           1.05                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.00           2.51                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.07           0.90 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             21.25         20.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                19.50         18.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             17.25         16.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   29.75         30.29                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              35.50         36.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   38.50         32.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Marguerita Choy and Jonathan Oatis)
  
 
 
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