June 5, 2020 / 2:02 PM / a month ago

U.S. natgas futures climb as LNG exports rise, Gulf of Mexico storm

    June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed on Friday along with other energy contracts as
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rose and a storm brewed in the Gulf of Mexico.
    That gas price increase, however, came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower air
conditioning demand in mid June.
    Front-month gas futures rose 2.6 cents, or 1.4%, to $1.848 per million British thermal units
at 9:33 a.m. EDT (1333 GMT). That puts the contract on track to rise for a fourth day in a row for the
first time since April 2019.
    For the week, the front-month was down less than 1% after rising almost 7% last week.
    Tropical Storm Cristobal is expected to sweep across Louisiana's production areas over the weekend.

    Refinitiv said gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 88.6 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from a one-year low of 89.3 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high
of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    With the coming of milder weather in mid June, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports,
would rise from 81.2 bcfd this week to 82.2 bcfd next week before sliding to 81.6 bcfd in two weeks.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach 5.0 bcfd on
Friday after dropping to a 13-month low of 3.7 bcfd on Monday. That compares with an eight-month low of
6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
    Analysts said U.S. LNG exports dropped in recent months after buyers canceled cargoes due to a
collapse in European gas prices.
    Major European benchmarks have soared around 60% this week from record
lows last week, boosting forwards at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) for all months over the
U.S. Henry Hub for the first time since late April.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                           Jun 5        May 29        Jun 5      average    
                                         (Actual)       (Actual)                  Jun 5     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +104           +102         +107        +94      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              12             12           17          22           18
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             163            156          127         140          136
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             175            168          144         162          154
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.3           88.7         88.5        89.9         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.1            6.2          6.6         8.0          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.3           95.0         95.1        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.2          2.2         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.8            5.1          4.9         4.8          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.0            5.2          5.1         5.2          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.6          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0            4.0          3.8         4.1          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          29.5           32.4         33.9        32.0         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.2           21.3         21.3        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.7            1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    65.6           68.7         70.0        68.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         78.5           81.2         82.2        80.6         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.68           1.84                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.45           1.58                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.56           2.65                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.40           1.46                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.70           1.76                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.63           1.73                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.06           2.53                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.56           1.63                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.75          25.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                28.00          29.00                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             27.25          31.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                    2.13          17.79                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              33.00          44.88                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   22.75          33.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
  
 
 
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