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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures ease on forecasts for less demand in November

    Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday on forecasts for less demand in early
November when expected gas price increases will cause power generators to burn more coal and less gas
to produce electricity.
    That decline came despite the continued rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a slowdown
in output, which boosted prices to a 20-month high earlier this week.
    Front-month gas futures fell 3.2 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.975 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu) at 8:41 a.m. EDT (1241 GMT). Earlier in the week, the contract closed at its highest since
January 2019.
    For the week, the front-month was on track to gain about 7%, putting it up for a fifth week in a
row for the first time since November 2018.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.4 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) so far in October. That would be the lowest in a month since October 2018.
    Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 89.9 bcfd this week to 97.5 bcfd next week
before easing to 97.1 bcfd in two weeks when power generators are expected to burn less gas.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 7.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September.
    That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month
in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas
prices prompt buyers to reverse past cargo cancellations.
    In the spot market, meanwhile, next-day gas rose to its highest since March 2019 at the AECO hub
NG-ASH-ALB-SNL on cold weather in Alberta and the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana on rising LNG
exports along the Gulf Coast.
        
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 23        Oct 16        Oct 23     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 23    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +40           +49          +89         +67 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             216           213          173         145          190
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             26             29           28          31           22
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             242           242          201         176          212
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             84.7           88.5         88.1        95.7         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.2           5.9          6.2         7.4          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        90.9           94.3         94.3       103.1         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2           2.3          2.3         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2           6.1          6.1         5.4          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.5           7.7          8.1         6.9          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.8           7.1          9.4         7.5          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          5.6           8.2          12.8        9.2          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           29.4         28.4        28.8         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.9           22.6         23.7        22.1         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.4          4.4         4.3          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           2.0          2.2         2.0          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.4           73.9         80.9        74.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.2           89.9         97.5        88.7         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.99           2.95                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.78           0.90                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.18           4.24                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.67           0.73                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          2.96           2.71                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.15           1.12                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.05           4.38                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.14           1.07 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             24.50         30.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                27.00         29.08                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             23.75         30.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   38.70         50.42                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              36.50         45.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   47.25         49.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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