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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures ease with weather expected to turn milder

    Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday on forecasts confirming the weather
will turn milder over the next two weeks.
    That price decline came despite a continued rise in liquefied natural gas exports and a drop in
output to its lowest in over two years after producers shut-in wells before Hurricane Sally smashed
into the Gulf Coast.
    Sally knocked out power to over 430,000 homes and businesses in Alabama and Florida when it hit the
Alabama coast early Wednesday. The storm will stay far from any operating LNG export plants as it moves
toward Georgia and South Carolina.
    Front-month gas futures fell 3.7 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.325 per million British thermal units
at 9:08 a.m. EDT (1308 GMT).
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall to 84.1
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2018, due to Sally-related
shutdowns. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said almost 0.8 bcfd, or 28%,
of Gulf of Mexico gas production was shut-in on Tuesday.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would fall from 85.2
bcfd this week to 81.8 bcfd next week.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 5.3 bcfd so far in
September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first
time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas more
attractive following months of U.S. cargo cancellations due to coronavirus demand destruction.

    Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana, however, has remained shut since Aug. 27 due to lingering
power outages from Hurricane Laura. Some analysts say the plant could remain shut through mid October.

                                 
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 11         Sep 4        Sep 11     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 11    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +70           +70          +82         +77 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             40             43           14          24           51
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             80             81          149         130           89
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             120           124          163         154          140
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             88.4           86.4         86.6        93.3         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.8           5.9          6.6         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        94.2           92.3         93.2       100.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.1          2.1         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.8          6.1         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.8           6.9          6.9         6.5          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.8           4.9          5.3         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0           4.2          4.9         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         34.3           33.6         28.7        35.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.5         21.7        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4           4.3          4.3         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          1.8         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.0           70.4         66.8        71.3         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        84.0           85.2         81.8        86.4         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.19           2.18                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.29           1.26                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.40           3.44                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.07           1.18                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.92           1.95                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.25           1.38                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.57           2.65                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.50           1.59 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.00         20.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                18.50         20.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             31.50         29.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   33.42         32.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              34.25         33.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   37.25         36.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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