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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures edge up on cold forecasts, rising LNG exports

    Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Friday on forecasts for the weather to turn
colder and heating demand to rise in late October and a continued rise in liquefied natural gas
exports.
    That price increase came despite a rise in output with Gulf Coast wells returning after Hurricane
Delta.
    Front-month gas futures were up 5.3 cents, or 1.9%, to $2.828 per million British thermal
units at 8:44 a.m. EDT (1244 GMT).
    That put the contract on track to rise for a fourth week in a row after gaining about 3% this week.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states jumped to 87.4 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) on Thursday from a 26-month low of 82.4 bcfd over the weekend as wells shut for Delta
returned to service.
    As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump
from 85.1 bcfd this week to 90.3 bcfd next week and 98.0 bcfd in two weeks.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 6.8 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September, despite hurricane and maintenance outages this month.
    That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month
in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas
prices prompted buyers to reverse cargo cancellations.
    Previously, U.S. exports fell from March-July as coronavirus-related demand destruction caused
prices in Europe and Asia to collapse to record lows and buyers to cancel around 175 U.S. cargoes.
    Front-month gas prices in Europe and Asia were trading at their highest since
December 2019 and January 2020, respectively, putting them both more than $2 per mmBtu over the U.S.
Henry Hub benchmark.
    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 16        Oct 9         Oct 16     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 16    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +56           +46          +92         +75 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             175           173          190         125          159
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             42             40           37          45           29
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             217           213          227         160          188
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.8           84.7         86.2        94.9         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.7           6.2          6.2         7.3          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.5           90.9         92.2       102.2         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2           2.2          2.2         2.1          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.9           6.1          5.9         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          7.1           6.5          8.1         6.6          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           6.0           5.7          7.3         7.2          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          6.2           5.5          8.5         8.6          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         31.2           30.9         29.3        28.9         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          22.2           21.9         22.7        22.2         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.2          4.3         4.1          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          2.0         1.9          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.8           70.3         74.2        73.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        87.0           85.1         90.3        87.3         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.23           2.02                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.48           1.27                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.20           4.10                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.26           1.15                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          2.21           2.08                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.39           1.48                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.71           4.50                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.19           0.29 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             27.75         23.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                25.00         22.96                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             19.25         19.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   31.47         49.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              82.83         78.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                  117.25         91.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Paul Simao)
  
 
 
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