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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures edge up with rising demand ahead of storage report

    Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday on forecasts for demand to rise
over the next two weeks as cooler weather boosts heating demand and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports
increase.
    That price move came ahead of a federal report expected to show a near-normal storage build last
week that should keep inventories on track to reach a record 4.1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the end
of October.
    Analysts said U.S. utilities injected 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week
ended Sept. 25. That compares with an increase of 109 bcf during the same week last year and a
five-year (2015-19) average build of 78 bcf.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 3.759 tcf, 12.2% above the five-year average of
3.351 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures rose 2.1 cents, or 0.8%, to $2.548 per million British thermal units
at 9:12 a.m. EDT (1312 GMT).
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a two-week high of 87.9
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from a four-month low of 84.9 bcfd last week.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.5
bcfd this week to 85.8 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.7 bcfd in September. That was the most in
a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7
bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations.

    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 25        Sep 18        Sep 25     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 25    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +79           +66          +109        +78 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             86             78           75          73          102
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             59             67           99          72           52
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             145           145          174         145          154
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             85.6           86.5         87.0        94.4         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.5           6.0          6.5         7.6          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        91.1           92.5         93.4       102.0         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.2          2.4         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           6.0          6.0         5.9          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          5.7           6.4          7.5         6.3          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.2           5.3          6.1         5.3          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.7           4.9          6.3         4.9          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           30.7         29.0        34.3         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.8         22.1        21.4         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.3          4.3         4.2          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.6           69.0         69.9        72.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        82.4           83.5         85.8        86.4         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.66           1.74                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.95           1.18                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.82           3.87                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.98           1.16                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.43           1.35                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.06           1.18                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.21           5.33                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.73           1.16 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             19.00         19.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                19.50         20.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             19.25         22.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   42.64         44.25                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              70.25         56.88                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                  102.00         71.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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