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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures fall after Trump's positive coronavirus test

    Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Friday, following the crude market lower
after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus and U.S. negotiators failed to agree
on a new economic stimulus package.
    Traders noted that gas prices were also pressured by continued weakness in cash NG-W-HH-SNL
prices, which have traded below futures since August, and forecasts for milder weather and less demand
over the next two weeks than previously expected.
    With all the bearish news, the market ignored a small decline in gas output and continued increases
in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. 
    Front-month gas futures were down 8.9 cents, or 3.5%, at $2.438 per million British thermal
units at 9:16 a.m. EDT (1316 GMT).
    For the week, the contract was still up about 14% after rising 4% last week.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.4 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from a four-month low of 87.2 bcfd in September.
    Those production declines come as low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand
destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling so much that output from new
wells was no longer able to offset declines from existing wells.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.3
bcfd this week to 85.6 bcfd next week and 85.7 bcfd in two weeks. That, however, was lower than
Refinitiv's forecasts on Thursday.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in October,
up from 5.7 bcfd in September. Traders expect LNG exports to keep rising as Cameron and Cove Point
return over the next week or two and rising global gas prices prompt buyers to reverse some earlier
planned cargo cancellations.
    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 2         Sep 25        Oct 2      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 2     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +77           +76          +102        +86 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             87             96           75          73          105
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             57             59           99          72           50
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             144           145          174         145          155
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             85.6           86.6         86.9        94.4         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.5           5.9          6.3         7.6          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        91.1           92.6         93.2       102.0         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.1          2.3         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           6.0          6.0         5.9          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          5.7           6.4          7.4         6.3          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.2           5.3          6.1         5.3          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.7           4.9          6.3         4.9          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           30.5         29.2        34.3         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.8         22.1        21.4         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.3          4.3         4.2          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.6           68.8         70.0        72.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        82.4           83.3         85.6        86.4         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.60           1.66                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.71           0.95                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.63           3.82                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.52           0.98                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.28           1.43                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        0.74           1.06                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.48           4.21                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.34           0.73 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             18.50         19.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                17.75         19.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             14.00         19.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   29.03         42.64                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              60.25         70.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   62.50         102.00                             
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Paul Simao)
  
 
 
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