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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures fall over 6% on lower demand, rising output

    Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures for the most active month fell over 6% on Tuesday on
forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a rise in output.
    For the front-month, however, the contract was up around 24% to its highest since November
2019 due to the roll of the less expensive October future into the much more expensive November. That
is the biggest one-day percentage gain for the front-month since 2009 when a similar October to
November contract roll caused it to jump 31%.
    On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 18.5 cents, or
6.6%, from where the November contract traded on Monday to $2.610 per million British thermal units on
Tuesday at 9:49 a.m. EDT (1349 GMT).
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a one-week high of 86.1
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday from a four-month low of 84.4 bcfd last week.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 82.9
bcfd this week to 84.7 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv forecast on Monday because higher gas prices were
expected to cause some power generators to burn more coal and less gas to produce electricity.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.6 bcfd so far in September. That was the
most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a
record 8.7 bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo
cancellations.
    Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana started taking in small amounts of gas over the past few
days.
                                          
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 25        Sep 18        Sep 25     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 25    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +85           +66          +109        +78 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             80             79           75          73           94
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             70             73           99          72           57
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             150           152          174         145          151
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             85.6           85.7         85.4        94.4         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.5           5.8          6.1         7.6          8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        91.1           91.5         91.4       102.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.1          2.1         2.2          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.8          6.0         5.9          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          5.7           6.3          7.5         6.3          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           5.2           5.3          6.0         5.3          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.7           4.8          6.1         4.9          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           30.7         28.8        34.3         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.8         22.1        21.4         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.2          4.2         4.2          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.8          1.8         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.6           68.7         69.2        72.0         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        82.4           82.9         84.7        86.4         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.83           1.90                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.40           0.98                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.00           3.99                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.25           0.98                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.53           1.70                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.72           1.08                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.60           3.05                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.08           0.67 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             29.00         20.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                23.75         20.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             18.75         17.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   36.00         36.50                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              55.25         54.29                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   56.50         49.00                              
   

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Reporting by Harshith Aranya and K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru;
editing by Steve Orlofsky
)
  
 
 
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