June 11, 2020 / 12:32 PM / 21 days ago

U.S. natgas futures flat as market waits for storage report

    June 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Thursday as the market waited for
direction from a federal report expected to show a near-normal storage build last week.
    Analysts said utilities likely injected 93 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the
week ended June 5. That compares with an increase of 107 bcf during the same week last year and a
five-year (2015-19) average build of 94 bcf for the period.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 2.807 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 17.6% above the
five-year average of 2.386 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures rose 0.5 cents, or 0.3%, to $1.785 per million British thermal units
at 8:11 a.m. EDT (1211 GMT).
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 88.5 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) so far in June from a one-year low of 89.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of
95.4 bcfd in November.
    With milder weather expected in mid-June, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would
slide from 82.6 bcfd this week to 79.6 bcfd next week.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 4.2 bcfd (43%
utilization) so far in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly record high
of 8.7 bcfd in February. Utilization was about 90% in 2019.
    U.S. LNG exports have dropped in recent months after buyers canceled dozens of cargoes for the
summer because gas prices have mostly been higher in the United States than in Europe
 since late April due to global demand destruction from the coronavirus and
record high European stockpiles.
    In fact, higher U.S. prices have prompted some energy firms to send LNG to the United States for
storage.
           
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                           Jun 5        May 29        Jun 5      average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jun 5     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +93            +102         +107        +94      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              8              7            14          14           13
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             183            183          137         158          152
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             191            190          151         172          165
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.7           88.4         88.6        90.0         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.2            6.0          6.6         7.9          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.0           94.4         95.2        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2            2.4          2.4         2.5          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.1            5.4          5.0         5.0          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          5.2            4.0          4.4         5.3          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.5          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.9            3.8          3.8         3.9          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          32.3           34.8         31.8        31.3         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.3         21.4        21.3         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8            1.9          1.8         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    68.6           70.8         67.8        67.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         81.1           82.6         79.6        80.2         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.72           1.68                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.59           1.58                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.55           2.48                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.47           1.46                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.60           1.62                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.67           1.65                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.24           2.16                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.42           1.28                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.75          21.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                24.75          26.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             19.50          25.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   15.50          20.75                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              24.75          23.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   27.00          23.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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