June 10, 2020 / 1:26 PM / 24 days ago

U.S. natgas futures flat as slower output offset weaker demand

    June 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Wednesday as a slowdown in
output offset a forecast decline in air conditioning demand and low liquefied natural gas exports.
    Front-month gas futures remained unchanged at $1.770 per million British thermal units at
9:04 a.m. EDT (1304 GMT).
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 88.5 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) so far in June from a one-year low of 89.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of
95.4 bcfd in November.
    With milder weather expected in mid-June, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would
slide from 81.5 bcfd this week to 79.7 bcfd next week.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants dropped to an average of 4.1 bcfd so
far in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 8.7 bcfd in
February. 
    U.S. LNG exports have dropped in recent months after buyers canceled cargoes for the summer because
gas prices have mostly been higher in the United States than in Europe
since late April, global demand destruction from the coronavirus and record high stockpiles in Europe.

    In fact, some energy firms are sending LNG to the United States for storage.

    U.S. pipeline exports, however, are rising as North American consumers crank up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.3 bcfd so far in June, up from a seven-month
low of 2.2 bcfd in May but still well below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline
exports to Mexico averaged 5.3 bcfd so far this month, up from 4.8 bcfd in May but shy of the record 5.6
bcfd in March.
           
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                           Jun 5        May 29        Jun 5      average    
                                         (Actual)       (Actual)                  Jun 5     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +104           +102         +107        +94      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              7              8            14          14           14
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             183            178          137         158          150
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             190            186          151         172          164
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.7           88.4         88.6        90.0         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.2            6.0          6.6         7.9          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.0           94.5         95.2        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2            2.4          2.4         2.5          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.1            5.3          5.0         5.0          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          5.2            4.0          4.3         5.3          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.5          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.9            3.8          3.8         3.9          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          32.3           33.9         32.1        31.3         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.4         21.4        21.3         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8            1.9          1.8         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    68.6           69.9         68.1        67.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         81.1           81.5         79.7        80.2         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.68           1.68                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.58           1.57                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.48           2.48                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.46           1.45                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.62           1.62                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.65           1.66                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.16           2.15                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.28           1.29                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             21.25          23.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                26.25          24.00                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             25.25          29.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   20.75          14.79                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              23.25          23.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   23.75          23.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
  
 
 
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