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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures held near an 8-month high on rising LNG exports, hot weather

    Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Wednesday held near an eight-month high as liquefied
natural gas (LNG) exports continue to rise and on forecasts for more hot weather and heating demand
through early September than previously expected.
    Front-month gas futures fell 0.8 cents, or 0.3%, to $2.409 per million British thermal units
at 9:04 a.m. EDT (1304 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since Dec. 5.
    Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 59% jump in
prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands so far in
August helped pull U.S. gas futures up about 33% this month. That made it profitable for more U.S. LNG
cargoes to go to Europe.
    U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas
flowing to the plants climbed to a three-month high of 4.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this
month from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July.
    With temperatures expected to remain hot through early September, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand,
including exports, will hold around 90.2 bcfd this week and next. That is higher than Refinitiv's
forecast on Tuesday.
    U.S. production has averaged 88.5 bcfd so far in August, up from a two-month high of 88.0 bcfd in
July. That, however, is still well below November's all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd.
    In California, meanwhile, power companies continued to urge customers to conserve energy through
Thursday to avoid more rotating outages as the brutal heat wave blanketing the state over the past week
pushes the demand forecast for Wednesday over the prior day's three-year high.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Aug 14         Aug 7        Aug 14     average    
                                         (Actual)       (Actual)                  Aug 14    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +43            +58          +56         +44 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              5              4            2           6            7
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             195            191          195         181          170
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             200            195          197         187          177
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              89.0           88.5         88.6        92.9         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.9            6.6          6.9         8.3          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.9           95.2         95.4       101.2         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    1.9            2.0          2.0         3.0          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.6            5.7          5.7         5.5          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.4            4.7          4.8         5.1          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.4            4.5          4.5         4.5          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.6         3.6          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          41.7           41.6         41.4        42.8         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.6         21.6        21.5         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.1         2.1          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    77.8           77.8         77.6        79.0         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         89.7           90.2         90.1        92.6         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.45           2.32                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.42           1.55                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.41           3.53                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.27           1.45                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.21           2.16                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.36           1.48                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           6.51          13.34                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.69           0.79 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.00          25.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                27.75          29.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             34.00          46.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   107.50         177.50                             
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              200.75        1310.56                             
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   199.75         698.00                             
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
  
 
 
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