June 17, 2020 / 1:06 PM / 15 days ago

U.S. natgas futures hold near 2-mth low on rising output, low LNG exports

    June 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a two-month low on Wednesday on signs of a
slow recovery in output and continued low liquefied natural gas exports.
    Front-month gas futures remained unchanged at $1.614 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu) at 8:48 a.m. EDT (1248 GMT).
    In the spot market, next-day gas at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana NG-W-HH-SNL fell to $1.43
per mmBtu, its lowest since hitting a record low of $1.03 in December 1998.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged just 87.6 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) in June, down from a 16-month low of 88.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd
in November. On a daily basis, however, output was up to one-month high of 88.3 bcfd this week from a
19-month low of 85.7 bcfd in late May.
    With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 77.9
bcfd this week to 85.1 bcfd next week. That was similar to Refinitiv's outlooks on Monday and Tuesday.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just 4.0 bcfd (41%
utilization) in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in
February. Utilization was about 90% in calendar 2019.
    U.S. liquefied natural gas exports dropped in recent months after buyers canceled dozens of cargoes
for the summer in April and May when gas was more expensive in the United States than in Europe
 due to global coronavirus demand destruction and record-high European
stockpiles.
                   
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jun 12         Jun 5        Jun 12     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jun 12    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +87            +93          +111        +87      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              2              2            8           10           9
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             208            198          162         175          167
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             210            200          170         185          176
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.3           88.0         88.0        90.3         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.0            5.7          6.3         7.1          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.3           93.7         94.4        97.4         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.3          2.3         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.5            5.1          5.1         5.1          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.0            3.8          3.6         5.5          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.5          4.4         4.5          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.8            3.8          3.5         3.8          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          34.5           30.7         38.3        32.2         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.4         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9            1.8          2.0         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    70.4           66.8         74.0        68.1         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         82.3           77.9         85.1        81.1         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.43           1.64                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.33           1.23                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.28           2.41                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.22           1.10                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.37           1.44                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.40           1.35                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.87           1.90                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.23           1.28                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             17.25          18.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                20.03          18.80                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             17.50          20.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                    7.25          12.69                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              20.50          22.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   20.75          22.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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