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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures jump 4% as output falls, LNG exports soar

    Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped 4% on Monday as output fell and liquefied
natural gas exports soared.
    That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather expected to produce little heating or
cooling demand over the next two weeks.
    After falling to a four-week low last week, front-month gas futures rose 9 cents, or 4.0%,
to $2.359 per million British thermal units at 9:11 a.m. EDT (1311 GMT). On Friday, the contract closed
at its lowest since Aug. 13.
    Gas speculators cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental
Exchanges last week for the first time in seven weeks on expectations coronavirus demand destruction
and record stockpiles would prevent price spikes and shortages this winter.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to slide to a two-week
low of 86.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday.
    With the weather turning cooler, Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48, including exports,
would slide from 85.3 bcfd this week to 82.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than
Refinitiv's outlook on Friday.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, was on track to average 5.1 bcfd in
September. That is the most in a month since May and is up for a second month in a row for the first
time since hitting a record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
    That LNG-export gain comes as Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana keeps ramping
up after shutting in late August for Hurricane Laura and as global gas prices rise. That price increase
makes U.S. gas more attractive in Europe and Asia following months of U.S. cargo
cancellations due to coronavirus demand destruction. 
                    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 11         Sep 4        Sep 11     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 11    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +70           +70          +82         +77 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             48             33           14          24           45
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             79            101          149         130           95
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             127           134          163         154          140
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             88.4           87.2         87.3        93.3         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.8           6.2          6.7         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        94.2           93.4         94.0       100.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.2          2.2         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.8          6.0         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.8           6.9          6.8         6.5          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.8           4.9          5.4         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0           4.2          4.1         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         34.3           33.5         29.0        35.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.5         21.7        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4           4.3          4.3         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          1.8         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.0           70.4         67.4        71.3         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        84.0           85.3         82.4        86.4         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.93           2.13                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.26           1.43                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.27           3.46                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.16           1.38                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.78           1.88                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.50           2.20                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          1.87           2.26                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.41           1.50 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             18.50         23.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                18.50         23.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             23.50         22.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   24.50         25.50                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              45.80         27.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   27.75         32.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
  
 
 
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