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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures jump 5% ahead of storage report on colder forecasts

    Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose 5% on Thursday on forecasts for colder weather and
more heating demand over the next two weeks and a storage report expected to show a smaller-than-usual
weekly storage build.
    That price increase came despite a rise in output with Gulf Coast wells returning after Hurricane
Delta and an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants now that all facilities
are operating following hurricane and maintenance shutdowns.
    Analysts said U.S. utilities likely injected 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the
week ended Oct. 9. That compares with an increase of 102 bcf during the same week last year and a
five-year (2015-19) average build of 87 bcf.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 3.886 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 10.3% above the
five-year average of 3.524 tcf for this time of year. That keeps overall inventories on track to reach
a record high over 4.0 tcf by the end of October.
    After falling almost 8% in the prior session, front-month gas futures rose 13.2 cents, or
5.0%, to $2.768 per million British thermal units at 8:43 a.m. EDT (1243 GMT).
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states jumped to 87.0 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) on Wednesday from a 26-month low of 82.4 bcfd over the weekend as wells shut for Delta
returned to service.
    As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump
from 85.2 bcfd this week to 91.6 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Wednesday.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 6.8 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September, despite several hurricane and maintenance outages this month.
    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 9         Oct 2         Oct 9      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 9     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +55           +75          +102        +87 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             173           148          190         125          155
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             40             44           37          45           31
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             213           202          227         160          186
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.8           84.6         84.8        94.9         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.7           6.2          6.2         7.3          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.5           90.8         91.1       102.2         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2           2.2          2.2         2.1          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.9           6.1          6.0         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          7.1           6.5          7.9         6.6          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           6.0           5.7          7.7         7.2          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          6.2           5.6          9.3         8.6          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         31.2           31.0         29.3        28.9         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          22.2           21.9         22.9        22.2         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.2          4.2         4.1          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          2.0         1.9          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.8           70.4         75.5        73.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        87.0           85.2         91.6        87.3         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.02           2.14                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.27           1.24                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.10           4.13                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.15           1.12                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          2.08           1.87                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.48           1.36                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.50           1.90                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.29           0.23 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.75         25.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                22.96         22.00                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             19.00         24.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   49.00         28.88                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              78.00         64.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   91.50         80.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
  
 
 
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