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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures jump to 9-month high on Gulf of Mexico storms

    Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed to their highest in nine months on Monday as
tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico curbed output, even as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports
continued to rise.
    Front-month gas futures rose 5.3 cents, or 2.2%, to $2.501 per million British thermal units
at 10:19 a.m. EDT (1419 GMT), having earlier touched their highest since Nov. 27 at $2.525.
    Energy companies shut 44.6%, or 1,205 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), of natural gas output due
to twin storm threat in the Gulf of Mexico, the federal Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement
(BSEE) said on Sunday.
    Marco, previously a hurricane, weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday, while Tropical Storm Laura
was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Tuesday, the U.S. National Hurricane Centre (NHC).

    "There is still a possibility that Laura could become a Category 2 or a Category 3 hurricane next
week. ... So, we are going to see some production losses because of the shutdown," said Phil Flynn, a
senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
    "(However,) the question is if the production loss is going to be bigger than demand," he said,
adding that expectations of improvement in the global LNG exports market is offering some additional
support to prices.
    U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months.
    With a seasonal cooling of the weather expected in September, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand,
including exports, would slide from an average of 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to
87.4 bcfd in the coming weeks.
            
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Aug 21          Aug         Aug 21     average    
                                        (Forecast)     14(Actual)                 Aug 21    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +50            +43          +60         +49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              6              5            5           11           10
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             197            204          179         165          158
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             203            209          184         176          168
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.6           87.1         87.3                     79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.6            6.9          6.8                      8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0                      0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.2           94.0         94.1                     87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0            1.9          1.9                      2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.7            5.9          5.7                      4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.7            5.0          4.7                      2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.5          4.6                      4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.6          3.7                      3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          41.8           42.5         38.8                     36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.6           21.5         21.5                     20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.3          4.3                      4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.0                      2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1                      0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    77.9           78.7         75.0                     71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.4           91.5         87.4                     80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.39           2.35                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.30           1.20                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.20           3.25                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.15           1.09                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.15           2.21                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.31           1.40                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           4.09           5.10                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.24           1.75 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             26.75          25.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                29.00          28.00                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             33.00          28.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   32.08          18.75                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              105.50         145.00                             
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   57.00          77.25                              
 
 (Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
  
 
 
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