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Oil report

U.S. natgas futures jump to fresh 9-month high following contract roll

    Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped to a fresh nine-month high on Friday as the
front-month rolled to a new more expensive contract and lots of production remained shut along the Gulf
Coast from Hurricane Laura. 
    In addition, pipeline exports to Mexico climbed to a record high for a fourth day in a row and
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports started to edge up after dropping to an 18-month low earlier in the
week when two LNG plants in Louisiana shut for Laura.
    The remnants of Hurricane Laura, which smashed into the Gulf Coast as a major Category 4 storm early
Thursday, are now over Arkansas. Energy firms along the Gulf Coast are assessing damage to their oil and
gas infrastructure as they slowly return their pipes and plants to service. 
    On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for the most active October contract
remained unchanged at $2.707 per million British thermal units at 8:11 a.m. EDT (1211 GMT). But since
October futures are trading much higher than where the September contract closed on Thursday, the
front-month was up almost 5%, putting it on track for its highest settle since Nov. 8.
    For the week, the front-month was up 10%. That puts the contract up for a fourth week in a row for
the first time since May 2019, gaining a total of 50% over those four weeks.
    On a daily basis, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals was on track to rise on
Friday for a second day in a row to 2.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd). On Wednesday, pipeline flows
to the LNG plants fell to 2.3 bcfd, their lowest since February 2019, after Cheniere Energy Inc
and Cameron LNG shut their Louisiana plants.

    U.S. output, meanwhile, was on track to drop to a three-month low of 85.3 bcfd on Friday as many
wells in the Gulf remain shut for Laura, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv.
            
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Aug 28         Aug 21       Aug 28     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Aug 28    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +37            +45          +77         +66 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              12             9            4           10           13
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             175            182          179         168          147
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             187            191          183         178          160
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.6           86.5         86.0        92.7         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.6            7.1          7.1         7.7          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.2           93.5         93.1       100.4         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0            1.8          1.9         3.1          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.7            6.2          5.9         5.5          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.7            3.8          3.2         6.5          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.5          4.6         4.5          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.6          3.7         3.6          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          41.8           42.5         39.4        33.9         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.6           21.5         21.5        21.5         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.3          4.2         4.3          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.0         2.1          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    77.9           78.6         75.5        70.0         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.4           90.5         86.5        85.1         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.52           2.52                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.62           2.00                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.56           3.49                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.20           1.35                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.28           2.33                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.35           1.51                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           4.05           4.59                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.07           1.25 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.00          23.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                31.50          29.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             54.38          55.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   20.75          23.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              63.75          93.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   64.75          85.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
  
 
 
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