July 20, 2020 / 12:58 PM / 14 days ago

U.S. natgas futures slip to fresh 2-week low on rising output

    July 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped to a fresh two-week low on Monday as output
slowly increases despite forecasts for hotter weather and higher cooling demand over the next two weeks
than previously expected.
    Prices remained weak even though pipeline exports to Mexico are on track to hit a record high this
month.
    Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.5 cents, or 1.5%, to
$1.693 per million British thermal units at 8:37 a.m. EDT (1237 GMT). If the contract closes at its
current level, it would be the lowest settle since July 1.
    Looking ahead, speculators last week boosted their long positions on the NYMEX to
their highest since December 2018 on hopes energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds later this
year after state governments lift coronavirus-linked lockdowns.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 88.4 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in July, up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November. Traders noted output was rising as EQT Corp boosted
production in Appalachia.
    As consumers crank up their air conditioners, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports,
will rise from 92.5 bcfd this week to 94.1 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's outlook on
Friday.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 3.3 bcfd (34% utilization) so far in July,
down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record 8.7 bcfd in February. Utilization was about
90% in 2019. Flows to Freeport in Texas held at zero for a 14th straight day for the first time since
July 2019 when the first of its three liquefaction trains was in test mode.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 17         Jul 10       Jul 17     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 17    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +42            +45          +44         +37      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            2           4            2
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             246            244          220         206          202
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             247            245          222         210          204
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.0           89.1         88.8        90.3         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  7.0            6.8          6.8         8.1          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.0           96.0         95.6        98.4         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.5            2.4          2.4         2.7          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.7            5.6          5.6         5.1          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.4            3.9          4.4         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          43.3           44.7         45.7        40.4         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.4         21.5        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.2         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    79.2           80.6         81.7        76.4         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.8           92.5         94.1        90.3         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.79           1.79                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.73           1.57                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.42           2.49                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.32           1.28                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.69           1.70                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.81           1.44                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.83           1.96                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.46           1.54                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.75          20.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                38.50          36.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             27.50          24.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   30.10          14.58                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              37.75          35.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   33.50          27.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below