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Oil report

U.S. natgas holds near 7-wk low as output drop offsets fall in LNG exports

    Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a
seven-week low on Tuesday as an expected drop in output to its
lowest in two years offset a forecast decline in demand due to a
decrease in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
    Front-month gas futures were unchanged at $1.839 per
million British thermal units at 8:34 a.m. EDT (1234 GMT). On
Monday, the contract plunged over 10% to its lowest since July
31.
    Traders said futures, which were down about 33% since
hitting an eight-month high in late August, were mostly
following the spot market lower.
    Next-day gas at the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in
Louisiana plunged to an 11-year low of $1.331 per mmBtu for
Tuesday, putting it down almost 50% since it hit a nine-month
high in late August.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S.
states was on track to fall to 83.9 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2018, as Tropical
Storm Beta swirls along the Texas Coast. That drop occurred even
though producers said they did not expect much damage from Beta.
    With prices expected to remain relatively low, Refinitiv
projected demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports,
would rise from 81.4 bcfd this week to 83.7 bcfd next week as
electric generators burn more gas instead of coal to produce
power. That, however, was below Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday
due mostly to reduced LNG exports.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on
track to slide to a two-week low of 3.9 bcfd on Tuesday from a
four-month high of 7.9 bcfd last week.
    Gas flows to LNG export plants dropped due to planned
maintenance at Dominion Energy Inc's Cove Point in
Maryland and the continued outage at Cameron in Louisiana.

                                     
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 18        Sep 11        Sep 18     average    
                                        (Actual)       (Actual)                  Sep 18    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +74           +89          +97         +80 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             48             40           37          52           70
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             85             88          137          91           73
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             133           128          174         143          143
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.4           86.1         85.9        93.7         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.7           5.6          6.2         8.1          8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.2           91.7         92.1       101.8         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.0          2.0         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.8           6.0          6.1         5.8          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.9           5.3          5.1         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.9           5.2          5.2         4.8          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.1           4.6          4.7         3.9          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         33.8           30.5         32.7        33.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.7        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.3          4.2         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.7           68.1         70.6        69.9         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           81.4         83.7        84.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.33           1.56                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.78           1.04                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.50           3.30                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.73           0.87                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.44           1.46                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.05           0.95                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.51           2.24                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.90           0.98 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.75         14.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                18.75         16.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             16.00         17.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   30.29         29.19                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              36.25         24.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   32.75         27.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
  
 
 
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