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Oil report

U.S. natgas jumps 6% from 7-week low as demand and LNG exports rise

    Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 6% on Wednesday from a seven-week low in
the prior session as output continues to slide lower, demand edges up and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports increase.
    Front-month gas futures rose 11.2 cents, or 6.1%, to $1.946 per million British thermal
units at 8:20 a.m. EDT (1220 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since July 31 for a
second day in a row.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall to 83.8
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, its lowest since August 2018 as low prices earlier this
year prompted energy firms to cut back on drilling by so much that the amount of gas from new wells was
no longer enough to cover declines at existing wells. The rig count fell to a record low in mid August.

    With low prices earlier in the week, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from
82.0 bcfd this week to 84.4 bcfd next week as electric generators burn more gas instead of coal to
produce power.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to rise from a two-week low of 3.9 bcfd
on Tuesday to 4.0 bcfd on Wednesday as some vessels docked in the Gulf of Mexico after Tropical Storm
Beta dissipated.
    For the month, LNG feedgas averaged 5.4 bcfd so far in September. That was the most in a month
since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in
February as global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas more attractive.

    U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, were on track to average 6.0 bcfd in September, which
would top August's record 5.9 bcfd.
                                      
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 18        Sep 11        Sep 18     average    
                                        (Actual)       (Actual)                  Sep 18    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +74           +89          +97         +80 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             57             48           37          52           73
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             84             85          137          91           70
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             141           133          174         143          143
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.4           85.6         85.7        93.7         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.7           5.5          6.1         8.1          8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.2           91.2         91.7       101.8         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.0          2.0         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.8           6.0          6.1         5.8          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.9           5.3          5.0         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.9           5.2          5.2         4.8          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.1           4.7          4.7         3.9          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         33.8           31.0         33.3        33.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.8        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.2          4.2         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.7           68.7         71.3        69.9         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           82.0         84.4        84.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.49           1.33                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.17           0.78                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.64           3.50                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.10           0.73                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.50           1.44                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.30           1.05                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.00           2.51                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.07           0.90 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             21.25         20.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                19.50         18.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             17.25         16.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   29.75         30.29                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              35.50         36.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   38.50         32.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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