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Oil report

U.S. natgas jumps almost 16% from 7-wk low as demand and LNG exports rise

    Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped 5% on Thursday as output continues to slide
while liquefied natural gas exports rise.
    That price increase came ahead of a report expected to show a near-normal storage build last week.
    Analysts said U.S. utilities injected 78 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week
ended Sept. 18. That compares with an increase of 97 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year
(2015-19) average build of 80 bcf.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 3.692 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 12.8% above the
five-year average of 3.273 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures were up 10.9 cents, or 5.1%, to $2.234 per million British thermal
units at 9:11 a.m. EDT (1311 GMT).
    The market has already been extremely volatile this week - prices fell over 10% on Monday and
jumped over 16% on Wednesday - as traders roll out of front-month October contracts, which expire on
Sept. 28, and into much higher priced November futures.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall for a second
month in a row to 86.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September from 87.5 bcfd in August.
    Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 82.6 bcfd this week to 85.3 bcfd
next week as LNG exports rise.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to rise to 5.7 bcfd on Thursday from a
two-week low of 3.9 bcfd on Tuesday as vessels returned to Gulf Coast terminals after Tropical Storm
Beta dissipated.
    The Army Corps of Engineers has said it plans to finish dredging the Calcasieu Ship Channel in the
second week of October, which traders said should allow Cameron LNG to return around that time.
                                          
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 18        Sep 11        Sep 18     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 18    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +78           +89          +97         +80 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             58             57           37          52           77
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             91             84          137          91           68
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             149           141          174         143          145
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.4           85.5         85.4        93.7         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.7           5.5          6.0         8.1          8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.2           91.0         91.4       101.8         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.0          2.0         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.8           6.0          6.1         5.8          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.9           5.7          6.2         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.9           5.2          5.3         4.8          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.1           4.7          4.8         3.9          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         33.8           31.1         33.0        33.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.8        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.2          4.2         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.7           68.8         71.1        69.9         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           82.6         85.3        84.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.74           1.49                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.28           1.17                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.75           3.64                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.25           1.10                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.74           1.50                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.42           1.30                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.88           3.00                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.40           1.07 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             26.00         21.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                20.75         19.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             20.00         17.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   26.50         29.75                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              42.38         35.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   38.50         38.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
  
 
 
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