July 24, 2020 / 12:16 PM / 17 days ago

U.S. natgas slides on forecasts for less heat, cooling demand next week

    July 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on
Friday on forecasts for less hot weather and air conditioning
demand next week than previously expected.
    Front-month gas futures fell 3.8 cents, or 2.1%, to
$1.747 per million British thermal units at 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200
GMT).
    Despite the daily decline, the front-month was still up
about 2% for the week after falling almost 5% last week.
    This is starting out to be an active storm season. Tropical
Storm Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to hit
South Texas over the weekend, while Tropical Storm Gonzalo is
expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it heads from the
Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states
averaged 88.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, up from
a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the
all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will
slide from an average of 92.7 bcfd this week to 91.4 bcfd next
week on forecasts for less heat before rising to 93.4 bcfd in
two weeks.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged
3.4 bcfd (35% utilization) in July, down from a 20-month low of
4.1 bcfd in June and a record 8.7 bcfd in February.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in
neighboring countries cranked up their air conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.4 bcfd
so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in June, but still below the
all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports
to Mexico averaged 5.63 bcfd so far this month, up from 5.44
bcfd in June and on track to top the record 5.55 bcfd in March.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 24         Jul 17       Jul 24     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 24    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +29            +37          +56         +33      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            2           4            2
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             235            236          220         206          201
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             236            237          222         210          203
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.0           89.0         88.6        90.3         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  7.0            6.8          7.0         8.1          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.0           95.8         95.5        98.4         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.5            2.4          2.5         2.7          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.7            5.8          5.7         5.1          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.4            3.7          3.5         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          43.3           44.9         43.8        40.4         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.4         21.4        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.1         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    79.2           80.8         79.7        76.4         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.8           92.7         91.4        90.3         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.75           1.69                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.74           1.75                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.37           2.39                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.20           1.23                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.65           1.59                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.51           1.57                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.67           1.74                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.30           1.19                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             28.25          28.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                27.75          30.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             42.50          31.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   15.57          14.14                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              19.00          23.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   22.75          23.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
  
 
 
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