June 1, 2020 / 12:55 PM / a month ago

U.S. natural gas fall 4% as LNG exports drop on record low global prices

    June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 4% on Monday as liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports continue to drop on record low gas prices in Europe and Asia.
    That price decline came despite forecasts for warmer weather and higher air conditioning demand over
the next two weeks than previously expected.
    Front-month gas futures for July delivery fell 7.7 cents, or 4.2%, to $1.772 per million
British thermal units at 8:36 a.m. EDT (1236 GMT).
    Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to fall to 87.6
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on the first day of June, down from a one-year low of 89.3 bcfd in May
and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 80.2 bcfd
this week to 81.8 bcfd next week. That is much higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday of 78.5 bcfd
this week and 79.3 bcfd next week.
    With U.S. gas prices expected to remain higher than European benchmarks through September
, the amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to
fall to a nine-month low of 4.3 bcfd on the first day of June as buyers cancel cargoes. That is down
from an 8-month low of 6.4 bcfd during May and a monthly record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.

    Most of the daily decline in LNG exports is expected at Cheniere Energy Inc's exports plants
at Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas, according to early Refinitiv data.
    Analysts at Energy Aspects said they expect around 125 U.S. cargoes to be shut-in this summer,
potentially slashing LNG deliveries to Europe by up to 424 billion cubic feet compared to what was
expected at the start of the summer.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          May 29        May 22        May 29     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  May 29    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +112           +109         +118        +103     
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              12             18           17          22           23
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             162            140          127         140          126
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             174            158          144         162          149
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.3           88.6         88.5        89.9         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.1            6.1          6.3         8.0          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.3           94.7         94.8        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.2          2.2         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.8            4.9          4.7         4.8          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.0            5.1          4.5         5.2          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.6          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0            4.0          3.8         4.1          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          29.5           31.8         34.2        32.0         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.2           21.3         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.7            1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    65.6           68.0         70.3        68.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         78.5           80.2         81.8        80.6         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.70           1.79                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.27           1.33                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.42           2.51                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.25           1.36                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.54           1.64                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.33           1.62                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.81           2.19                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.49           1.54                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             19.25          21.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                20.75          25.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             23.50          23.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                    9.18          19.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              24.00          16.75                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   15.50          24.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
  
 
 
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below