Edition:
India

Agamoni Ghosh

CORRECTED-UPDATE 2-U.S. data lifts European shares, but they log worst week in two months (Oct. 4)

07 Oct 2019

Oct 4 European shares ended a tumultuous week on a high note on Friday as data showing modest U.S. jobs growth lifted sentiment slightly, pushing a pan-region index to its best day in more than three weeks.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies eye weekly gains but stocks set to fall

04 Oct 2019

By Agamoni Ghosh Oct 4 Latin American currencies rose on Friday, on track to record their biggest weekly gains in almost a month as doubts over the health of the U.S. economy kept the dollar on the back foot, while Brazil stocks eyed their worst weekly performance since August. Recent sets of disappointing data from major economies through the week indicated that the manufacturing sector globally is in a synchronized slowdown, partly caused by the U.S.-China trade war, making investors weary of riskier bets. That worsened after dire readings of both the manufacturing and services sector in the world's largest economy raised red flags about the United States being a silver lining amid a global downturn, even though labour market numbers were stable. Money markets still expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy further, although expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year somewhat waned after the modest jobs data. "The odds of a cut may have gone down but they are still quite high," said Win Thin, global head of emerging market currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "We have some more data points to look at next week including inflation numbers which should give a much clearer picture on what the Fed is likely to do." Most currencies in the region eyed weekly gains led by Brazil's real, on course to gain over 2% for the week, with additional impetus coming from optimism regarding the final stages of approval for a landmark pension reform bill. MSCI's index of Latin American stocks rose marginally on those rate cut bets but was set to record a weekly loss of over 1% with Brazil's Bovespa on track to shed over 3% for the week. Mexican stocks rose marginally but were set to end lower for a second straight-week, while Chile's SPIPSA index was set to snap a five-week gaining streak. Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 14:14 GMT Stock indexes daily % change Latest MSCI Emerging Markets 994.94 0.27 MSCI LatAm 2655.27 0.83 Brazil Bovespa 101471.94 -0.04 Mexico IPC 42541.83 0.23 Chile IPSA 5029.90 0.58 Argentina MerVal 0.00 0 Colombia IGBC 12891.52 -0.11 Currencies daily % change Latest Brazil real 4.0666 0.54 Mexico peso 19.5403 0.54 Chile peso 715.7 0.06 Colombia peso 3428.78 0.44 Peru sol 3.3708 0.07 Argentina peso 57.7000 0.12 (interbank) (Reporting by Agamoni Ghosh Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks steady on Fed hopes, HK slumps after emergency powers invoked

04 Oct 2019

Oct 4 Emerging market stocks steadied on Friday as bets of a rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve increased after weak data readings raised doubts about the health of the world's top economy, while Hong Kong stocks slumped after emergency powers were invoked.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX firm as weak U.S. data dents dollar

03 Oct 2019

(Updates prices) By Agamoni Ghosh and Susan Mathew Oct 3 Latin American currencies rallied on Thursday as a weak reading of service sector activity in the United States raised doubts about the health of the world's largest economy and dented the dollar. U.S. services sector growth slowed to its most anemic pace in three years last month, and job growth in the largest slice of the American economy was the weakest in half a decade, a survey of purchasing managers showed. An index of Latin American currencies jumped 1.6% and was on track to post its best day in eight months with gains in regional currencies ranging between 0.5% and 1.4%. The dollar index which measure the greenback against a basket of six major rivals was down 0.2%. "We know manufacturing in the U.S. is already in recession, now we have to see if services follow suit," said Christian Lawrence, senior market strategist, LatAm FX at Rabobank. "For Latam currencies, the move is a short-term reaction to the dollar's weakness and expect it to fade." Brazil's real firmed 1.3% and touched its highest in two weeks bolstered by the latest reading of service sector activity in Latin America's largest economy showing an expansion in September at the fastest pace in six months. Investors will now be closely monitoring progress related to a landmark pension reform bill, whose final vote of approval from the Senate is expected to be completed by later this month. "It's not a done deal yet so that is a lingering risk, but the market is pretty much pricing in a passage, so any sign of delay or hindrance to that could result in a huge sell-off," said Lawrence. Stocks in Sao-Paulo slipped slightly. Lender BTG Pactual was the worst performer on Brazil's main index after Brazilian prosecutors said they were investigating BTG and former central bank and finance ministry officials over the alleged illegal leaking of interest rate decisions between 2010 and 2012.. State-controlled Banco do Brasil was the biggest boost to the index after it announced a 5.75 billion real ($1.39 billion) secondary share offering. Miner Vale SA followed, up 1%, after it said it expects to finish paying for most of the expenses related to the disaster at one of its facilities that killed at least 250 people by 2021. Mexican and Colombian stocks gained around half a percent each, tracking a move higher on Wall Street as the weak U.S. data raised bets of more easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Stocks in Chile and Argentina slipped, with the latter breaking a four-day winning streak. Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1815 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 992.62 0.35 MSCI LatAm 2630.79 1.47 Brazil Bovespa 100823.00 -0.21 Mexico IPC 42420.22 0.47 Chile IPSA 5000.10 -0.43 Argentina MerVal 30468.10 -1.052 Colombia IGBC 12866.92 0.69 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.0764 1.37 Mexico peso 19.6620 0.67 Chile peso 716.4 1.03 Colombia peso 3445.25 1.38 Peru sol 3.3698 0.54 Argentina peso 57.7300 0.17 (interbank) (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX jumps as dollar slides on dire U.S. data; stocks fall

03 Oct 2019

By Agamoni Ghosh Oct 3 Latin American currencies moved higher on Thursday against the dollar as a weak reading of service sector activity in the United States raised doubts about the health of the world's largest economy. U.S. services sector growth slowed to its most anemic pace in three years last month, and job growth in the largest slice of the American economy was the weakest in half a decade, a survey of purchasing managers showed on Thursday. Latin American currencies which had made modest gains since the morning jumped after the greenback slid but most stock indices reversed course to fall as global slowdown fears intensified. "We know manufacturing in the U.S. is already in recession, now we have to see if services follow suit," said Christian Lawrence, senior market strategist, LatAm FX at Rabobank. "For Latam currencies, the move is a short-term reaction to the dollar's weakness and expect it to fade." Colombia's peso and Chile's peso rose nearly 1%, leading gains, while Brazil's real firmed 0.8%. Also helping the real was the latest reading of service sector activity in Latin America's largest economy which expanded in September at the fastest pace in six months. Investors will now be closely monitoring progress related to a landmark pension reform bill, whose final vote of approval from the Senate is expected to be completed by later this month. "It's not a done deal yet so that is a lingering risk, but the market is pretty much pricing in a passage, so any sign of delay or hindrance to that could result in a huge sell-off," said Lawrence. Sao Paulo-listed stocks led losses among stocks, with shares of consumer good companies falling the most. Brazilian telecom carrier Oi SA slipped over 2% after Chief Operating Officer Rodrigo Abreu told Reuters it may sell its mobile operation if it gets attractive offers. Mexican stocks made the smallest losses, while those in Chile slipped 0.4%. Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 14:49 GMT Stock indexes daily % change Latest MSCI Emerging Markets 990.41 0.12 MSCI LatAm 2613.18 0.09 Brazil Bovespa 100522.92 -0.5 Mexico IPC 42198.33 -0.06 Chile IPSA 4994.74 -0.44 Argentina MerVal 30648.65 -0.46 Colombia IGBC 12760.37 -0.14 Currencies daily % change Latest Brazil real 4.0939 0.88 Mexico peso 19.7526 0.21 Chile peso 717.46 0.98 Colombia peso 3464.17 0.93 Peru sol 3.3748 0.39 Argentina peso 57.7850 0.08 (interbank) (Reporting by Agamoni Ghosh Editing by Nick Zieminski)

EMERGING MARKETS-Trade woes keep stocks in check, Polish banks hit after ECJ ruling

03 Oct 2019

* Turkey's lira higher after inflation dips to single figures

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks near 1-month lows, real tepid ahead of pension reform vote

02 Oct 2019

By Agamoni Ghosh Oct 2 Latin American stocks fell to one-month lows on Wednesday as weak economic indicators from the United States raised doubts over the health of the world's largest economy, while Brazil's real was lukewarm ahead of the passage of a key pension reform bill. MSCI's index of Latin American stocks fell 1.3% as global equities took a back seat after weak manufacturing readings from major economies sparked global growth worries. That intensified after private payroll numbers in the United States came in softer that expected, stoking fears that the economy may not be as strong as otherwise perceived. "This week has produced more evidence that global growth is slowing, with the global manufacturing PMI reaching a new post-credit crisis low," said Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. "While this would tilt the odds in favour of the FOMC cutting rates further, the key question is whether the Fed will be ahead of the curve and guide the market for even more cuts." The Bovespa fell 2%, weighed on by losses among financials and energy stocks, while the real made nominal moves against the dollar ahead of the Senate's vote to approve a landmark pension reform. The Senate approved the main text of the reform bill in a first-round vote on Tuesday but rejected an amendment, a move that will reduce expected total savings by 76 billion reais ($18 billion). Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, for whom the reform is the boldest bid yet to narrow the country's massive budget gap, urged senators to approve its final passage. Stocks in Mexico, Chile and Colombia all fell between 0.45 and 0.8%. In Peru, the sol rose 0.2% after Vice President Mercedes Araoz renounced her claim to the presidency in a surprise twist to a constitutional crisis, easing a standoff with President Martin Vizcarra over his decision to dissolve Congress. Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 14:47 GMT Stock indexes daily % Latest change MSCI Emerging Markets 989.50 -0.9 MSCI LatAm 2608.94 -1.42 Brazil Bovespa 101873.84 -2.09 Mexico IPC 42570.40 -0.85 Chile IPSA 5012.53 -0.6 Argentina MerVal 30247.76 0.604 Colombia IGBC 12759.02 -0.77 Currencies daily % Latest change Brazil real 4.1556 0.13 Mexico peso 19.7834 0.16 Chile peso 728 0.10 Colombia peso 3498.21 -0.15 Peru sol 3.3818 0.22 Argentina peso 57.8750 -0.39 (interbank) (Reporting by Agamoni Ghosh; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

EMERGING MARKETS-Global growth jitters take toll on EM shares, FX muted

02 Oct 2019

Oct 2 Emerging market shares took a back seat on Wednesday as weak business readings from the world's top economies raised fears of a worsening global slowdown, forcing investors to embrace perceived safe-heaven assets and exit riskier bets.

EMERGING MARKETS-Growth woes, trade uncertainty keep lid on stocks, Turkey's lira slides

01 Oct 2019

Oct 1 Emerging market stocks held steady on Tuesday as weak business readings from major economies amid uncertainty related to trade ties between the United States and China kept investors in a cautious mood, while Turkey's lira led a slide among currencies.

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks, FX set for weekly decline as trade, political woes weigh

27 Sep 2019

Sept 27 Emerging market assets fell on Friday, on track to end the week lower as uncertainty related to the U.S.-China trade war and rising political tensions in Washington and London made investors wary of betting on riskier assets.

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