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Anita Komuves

CEE MARKETS-Forint leads CEE losses; market eyes no Hungarian rate surprise

19 Oct 2020

By Anita Komuves and Radu-Sorin Marinas BUCHAREST/BUDAPEST, Oct 19 Hungary's forint led losses among Central European currencies on Monday, extending last week's falls, with investors largely expecting the central bank to keep rates steady during its Tuesday meeting. By 0920 GMT, the forint eased 0.2% to trade at 364.91 after having fallen to as low as 365 to the euro earlier in the session. Over the past week, the region witnessed a spike in COVID-19 infections, passing milestones of deaths and new cases nearly every day, which kept investors wary. "We expect a wait-and-see approach in the forint market today ahead of tomorrow's central bank's rate meeting," brokerage Equilor said in a note. The bank is likely to leave its base rate unchanged at 0.6% on Tuesday after weaker-than-expected September consumer prices data eased some concerns about inflation, a Reuters poll of economists showed. "The significant slowdown of inflation in September eased the pressure on the central bank," CIB Bank wrote in a note. "Thus we do not expect a change in the base rate for a while, the bank could manage the forint's exchange rate using the one-week deposit tender if need be." Of the eight economists who gave a forecast for the one-week deposit rate at the end of next month in a Reuters poll, six said it would stay at the current 0.75% level, with two analysts projecting another 15-basis-point increase over the coming weeks to 0.9%. Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said the bank would use this as a "fast response" tool, if needed, adding that renewed risk aversion posed the biggest risk to the inflation outlook. Elsewhere, the Czech crown and the Polish zloty both edged 0.1% down to trade at 27.2850 and 4.5485, respectively. The Romanian leu was flat at 4.8765. Czech bond yields mostly ticked higher, continuing a correction trend as markets keep an eye on 2021 budget preparations, with the deficit expected to stay next year. "Czech yields continued to edge higher in a correction after yield declines in September. This is something that we had expected," Erste Group Bank said. CEE SNAPSHOT AT MARKETS 1120 CET CURRENCIE S Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 Czech 27.2850 27.2600 -0.09% -6.79% crown Hungary 365.0000 364.0600 -0.26% -9.28% forint Polish 4.5485 4.5450 -0.08% -6.42% zloty Romanian 4.8775 4.8780 +0.01% -1.83% leu Croatian 7.5830 7.5825 -0.01% -1.81% kuna Serbian 117.5000 117.6000 +0.09% +0.06% dinar Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 Prague 871.55 867.0800 +0.52% -21.88% Budapest 33339.58 33225.15 +0.34% -27.65% Warsaw 1663.97 1655.36 +0.52% -22.61% Bucharest 8902.32 8874.99 +0.31% -10.77% Ljubljana 831.67 839.52 -0.94% -10.17% Zagreb 1606.50 1605.28 +0.08% -20.37% Belgrade 691.00 692.01 -0.15% -13.81% Sofia 429.59 429.83 -0.06% -24.39% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic 2-year 0.0940 0.0080 +087bp +1bps s 5-year 0.6250 0.0260 +143bp +3bps s 10-year <CZ10YT=RR 1.0440 0.0390 +167bp +4bps > s Poland 2-year 0.0150 -0.0010 +079bp +0bps s 5-year 0.4950 0.0060 +130bp +1bps s 10-year <PL10YT=RR 1.2960 0.0120 +192bp +1bps > s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interban k Czech Rep <P 0.26 0.25 0.31 0.35 RIBOR=> Hungary <B 0.94 0.97 0.99 0.77 UBOR=> Poland <W 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.22 IBOR=> Note: FRA are for ask prices quotes **************************************************** ********** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Ramakrishnan M.)

CEE MARKETS-Most currencies end week with steep losses amid virus worries

16 Oct 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Oct 16 Most Central European currencies eased further on Friday at the end of a week of steep losses as countries in the region passed COVID-19 milestones of deaths and new cases nearly every day, which unnerved investors. The Czech Republic recorded 9,721 new COVID-19 infections on Thursday, setting a single-day record for a second day running. The country has Europe's fastest growing infection rates. Poland reported a daily record of 132 coronavirus-related deaths while Hungary reported a record number of 1,293 daily new infections and 33 deaths on Friday. Currencies in the CEE region led weekly losses among emerging markets due to the soaring infection rates. The Hungarian forint slid 0.12% and was trading at 364.94 per euro and could further weaken based on the technical picture, analysts said. "There is no significant resistance level until 370," Erste Bank wrote in a note. The currency hit a record low of 369.54 on April 1, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Hungarian central bank is likely to leave its base rate unchanged next Tuesday after weaker-than-expected September consumer prices eased some concerns about inflation, a Reuters poll of economists showed. Elsewhere, the Czech crown firmed 0.25% to 27.311 per euro after weakening earlier this week to levels not seen since May. The Polish zloty slid 0.13% to 4.5585 versus the common currency while the Romanian leu was little changed. Tracking their European peers, CEE stock markets regained some of this week's losses on Friday. Warsaw's equities led the region and strengthened 1.28%. Budapest's blue chip index was up 0.5% while Prague gained 0.86%. Bucharest's stocks firmed 0.83%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1043 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 27.3110 27.3800 +0.25 -6.88% crown > % EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 364.940 364.5000 -0.12% -9.26% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5585 4.5526 -0.13% -6.63% zloty > EURRON= Romanian <EURRON= 4.8750 4.8745 -0.01% -1.78% leu > EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5810 7.5825 +0.02 -1.79% kuna > % EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.500 117.6000 +0.09 +0.06 dinar > 0 % % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 862.82 855.4600 +0.86 -22.66 % % .BUX Budapest 33225.7 33061.27 +0.50 -27.90 5 % % .WIG20 Warsaw 1648.39 1627.59 +1.28 -23.33 % % .BETI Bucharest 8850.14 8777.72 +0.83 -11.30 % % .SBITOP Ljubljana <.SBITOP 834.04 833.16 +0.11 -9.92% > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1603.39 1603.97 -0.04% -20.52 % .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 686.82 689.92 -0.45% -14.33 5 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 426.16 425.35 +0.19 -24.99 % % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT=R 0.0910 -0.0010 +087b +1bps R R> ps CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT=R 0.5670 -0.0320 +137b -2bps R R> ps CZ10YT= 10-year <CZ10YT= 1.0060 0.0010 +163b +1bps RR RR> ps Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT=R 0.0080 -0.0060 +078b +0bps R R> ps PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT=R 0.4860 0.0020 +129b +1bps R R> ps PL10YT= 10-year <PL10YT= 1.2680 0.0020 +189b +1bps RR RR> ps FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech Rep 0.26 0.25 0.29 0.35 <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.94 0.99 0.99 0.77 Poland 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.22 Note: FRA are for ask quotes prices ********************************************** **************** (Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)

CEE MARKETS-Forint plunge adds pressure on central bank, virus worries stay at forefront

14 Oct 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Oct 14 The Hungarian forint fell on Wednesday, underperforming peers, as investors worried about the effect of the second wave of the coronavirus infections and eyed the possibility of higher rates at the central banks's one-week deposit tender on Thursday. The forint is the latest to come under heavier pressure in central Europe as the number of virus cases spiraled in Europe. The Czech crown extended its slide in early trade to touch its lowest since May 20 before rebounding as weaker levels often draw interest from exporters looking to hedge. On the rates markets, the coronavirus spike has led some investors to bet Czech interest rates could drop more, although central bank Governor Jiri Rusnok said on Tuesday the bank currently saw no need to ease policy further with inflation quite high. In Budapest, the forint fell 0.67% and was trading at 363.45 versus the euro. "Besides the extremely low real interest rates and high inflation, the second wave of the pandemic is worrying investors," a Budapest-based trader said. "Hungary is not testing enough so the official number of infections remains low, which suggests that in reality the country has been hit very hard by the second wave." Hungary reported 920 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday. In comparison, the Czech Republic - Europe's worst hit by the spread in per capita terms - reported over 8,000 cases. Dealers said Hungarian markets were adding to pressure on the central bank. "Investors would like to see a higher the interest rate on the one-week deposit facility," a second trader said. The bank raised the interest rate on the facility by 15 basis points to 0.75% on Sept. 24 to prevent an increase in inflation risks, but has kept rates at this level since. Elsewhere, Poland reported a record 6,526 new infections. The zloty dipped 0.03% to 4.4936 versus the common currency. The Romanian leu eased 0.02% to 4.8761. Stock markets in the region recovered some ground, with Warsaw's equities leading gains firming 1.12%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1046 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 27.3790 27.3700 -0.03% -7.11% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 363.450 361.0300 -0.67% -8.89% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.4936 4.4910 -0.06% -5.28% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.8761 4.8747 -0.03% -1.80% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5800 7.5785 -0.02% -1.78% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.590 117.5700 -0.02% -0.02% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 874.21 868.0300 +0.71% -21.64% .BUX Budapes 33533.9 33322.71 +0.63% -27.23% t 3 .WIG20 Warsaw 1678.64 1660.12 +1.12% -21.93% .BETI Buchare 8886.60 8877.11 +0.11% -10.93% st .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 833.36 831.09 +0.27% -9.99% na > .CRBEX Zagreb 1608.44 1611.02 -0.16% -20.27% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 691.91 692.43 -0.08% -13.69% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 425.32 424.46 +0.20% -25.14% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.0770 -0.0010 +082bp +2bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 0.5730 -0.0280 +133bp -2bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 0.9890 -0.0100 +156bp +0bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.0150 -0.0090 +076bp +1bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.5030 -0.0070 +126bp +0bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.2690 -0.0030 +184bp +1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.22 0.21 0.30 0.35 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.95 0.99 0.98 0.76 Poland 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.22 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel)

CEE MARKETS-Crown weakens amid tightening COVID-19 measures, region mixed

12 Oct 2020

By Anita Komuves and Jason Hovet BUDAPEST/PRAGUE, Oct 12 The crown fell on Monday with markets in anticipation of new steps the Czech government may take to tackle a surge in COVID-19 infections, while most other central European assets were mixed. The Czech currency has struggled to regain ground with infections rising at Europe's fastest per-capita rate. Markets have started pricing in chances a rate cut to a "technical zero" while bond yields have risen in recent weeks with markets digesting government plans for a larger-than-expected budget deficit plan for 2021 that will boost borrowing. The spread of a Czech 10-year bond yields over German bonds is at a one-month high. The crown slid 0.31% to 27.110 per euro. Government officials said on Sunday they would seek to avoid the kind of blanket lockdown imposed in the spring, which hammered the economy. Czech National Bank Governor Jiri Rusnok reiterated in an interview with Forbes, published on Monday, the bank did not have to resort to any unorthodox tools. Czech inflation slowed more than expected last month, data showed on Monday, but it remains above 3%, the upper limit of the central bank's tolerance band around a 2% target. "With the worsening situation (around COVID-19), people expect more a cut than for rates to rise, even with inflation still above target," a trader said. The Romanian leu was little moved at 4.8720 against the euro after data showed on Monday Romania's consumer price inflation slowed more than expected in September. Analysts expect policymakers to hold the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. "We believe ... that the next step towards more easing will be made via lowering the reserve requirement levels," ING Bank Romania said in a note. Elsewhere, the Polish zloty eased 0.30% and was trading at 4.4654 per euro. The Hungarian forint was steady at 356.41 per euro after gains at the end of last week. The currency outperformed its peers following Thursday's better-than-expected inflation data. Most stocks weakened with Hungary's index sliding 0.81% and Prague's equities down 0.43%. Bucharest bucked the trend and gained 0.64%. Poland's stock market slid 0.14% while shares in Polish e-commerce company Allegro rose 51.2% on their stock market debut. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1050 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 27.1100 27.0200 -0.33% -6.19% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 356.410 356.4500 +0.01 -7.09% forint > 0 % EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.4790 4.4654 -0.30% -4.97% zloty > EURRON= Romanian <EURRON= 4.8720 4.8710 -0.02% -1.72% leu > EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5690 7.5690 +0.00 -1.63% kuna > % EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.470 117.5600 +0.08 +0.09% dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 868.72 872.5000 -0.43% -22.13% .BUX Budapest 33387.5 33660.44 -0.81% -27.55% 5 .WIG20 Warsaw 1696.47 1698.91 -0.14% -21.10% .BETI Buchares 8897.98 8841.21 +0.64 -10.82% t % .SBITOP Ljubljan <.SBITOP 838.74 837.32 +0.17 -9.41% a > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1615.20 1615.69 -0.03% -19.94% .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 691.29 689.85 +0.21 -13.77% 5 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 426.13 423.27 +0.68 -25.00% % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT=R 0.0700 -0.0060 +079b +0bps R R> ps CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT=R 0.5550 -0.0300 +130b -2bps R R> ps CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 0.9580 -0.0090 +150b +0bps RR 10-year RR> ps Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT=R 0.0000 -0.0290 +072b -2bps R R> ps PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT=R 0.5400 -0.0090 +128b +0bps R R> ps PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.3050 -0.0050 +185b +0bps RR 10-year RR> ps FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.35 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.88 0.89 0.93 0.76 Poland 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.22 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest, Jason Hovet in Prague, Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Luiza Ilie in Bucharest Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

CEE MARKETS-Currencies stable, stocks mixed ahead of Polish cenbank decision

07 Oct 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Oct 7 Central European currencies held stable on Wednesday, having briefly weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on Tuesday that negotiations about a new fiscal stimulus would stop until after the Nov. 3 election. The announcement led to larger moves on the FX market Tuesday evening, Equilor wrote in a note. Some emerging currencies, including the Hungarian forint, weakened as the announcement led to a risk-off mood and a strengthening of the dollar, they added. The sour mood was replaced on Wednesday by optimism a stimulus package would be introduced after the election. The forint was up 0.1% on Wednesday, trading at 359.450 versus the common currency. Investors were also eyeing the Polish central bank's rate decision later today. All 16 analysts polled by Reuters expect the key interest rate to remain on hold at a record low of 0.1%. Poland's central bank has cut the cost of borrowing three times by a cumulative 140 basis points since March. "Governor Adam Glapinski views the job of NBP as mainly to 'support' the economy at this time," Commerzbank wrote in a note. "Such a stance weighs down on the zloty exchange rate." The currency edged down 0.04% at 4.4828 per euro. Elsewhere, the Czech crown was up 0.07% at 26.980 per euro, testing the psychological level of 27 after firming towards it in recent days. The pandemic is still a concern in the Czech Republic where cases are now rising at the fastest rate in Europe when adjusted for population. Stocks were mixed, with Bucharest's equities firming 0.21% while Warsaw's blue chip index weakened 0.81%. Budapest's stock market was down 0.6%. Prague slid 0.08% while shares in Central European Media Enterprises rose over 4% after the European Commission approved Czech investment group PPF's bid to buy the broadcaster. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1101 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 26.9800 27.0000 +0.07% -5.74% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 359.450 359.8100 +0.10% -7.87% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.4828 4.4810 -0.04% -5.05% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.8745 4.8756 +0.02% -1.77% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5680 7.5683 +0.00% -1.62% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.530 117.5400 +0.01% +0.03% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 873.64 874.3300 -0.08% -21.69% .BUX Budapes 33629.9 33651.55 -0.06% -27.02% t 3 .WIG20 Warsaw 1721.39 1735.45 -0.81% -19.94% .BETI Buchare 8903.98 8885.36 +0.21% -10.76% st .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 840.58 843.77 -0.38% -9.21% na > .CRBEX Zagreb 1616.61 1618.24 -0.10% -19.87% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 695.94 695.52 +0.06% -13.19% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 421.52 422.19 -0.16% -25.81% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.1110 0.0040 +081bp +1bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 0.5350 -0.0400 +124bp -4bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 0.9230 -0.0250 +143bp -2bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.0420 -0.0090 +074bp -1bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.6010 0.0050 +131bp +1bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.3650 0.0080 +187bp +1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.35 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 1.01 1.07 1.12 0.77 Poland 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)

CEE MARKETS-Stocks, currencies regain some ground on signs Trump's health improving

05 Oct 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Oct 5 Central European currencies and stocks firmed on Monday, regaining some ground after last week's losses, as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump's doctors saying he could soon be discharged from hospital where he is being treated for COVID-19. Trump's announcement on Friday that he had contracted the coronavirus had prompted risk aversion and a selloff on markets globally which also hit Central European assets. Warsaw's stock market led gains on Monday, firming 1.59%. Prague's equities were up 0.52% while Budapest strengthened 0.11%. Bucharest's blue chip index was up 0.23%. The Czech crown edged up 0.07% on the day, trading at 27.100 per euro, just hovering off a 4-month low of 27.26 hit last week. "The crown is staying under pressure because of the domestic pandemic situation and global tensions," CSOB Bank said in a note. "August data for industry and trade this week will not change the mood even if it shows a nice recovery for the third quarter - it will be old figures." Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint firmed 0.15% to 357.95 versus the common currency. The forint managed to regain some of its strength last week after hitting five-month lows prompted by increased worries about the second wave of the pandemic. The currency rebounded last week helped by technical factors and comments by central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag in a Reuters interview in which he said that the bank will use its one-week deposit rate to combat inflation risks stemming from volatile global sentiment. "The technical correction that started on Thursday could continue," Erste Bank wrote in a note. "However, there have not been any changes in the fundamentals when it comes to the euro-forint exchange rate," they added, seeing a possible weakening of the forint in the mid-term. The Polish zloty was up 0.25% at 4.4922 per euro. Analysts in a Reuters poll last week said that central and eastern European currencies could bounce back over the next 12 months from recent losses on hopes of improvement in the global pandemic situation. In September the crown, the zloty and the forint lost 2-3% as rising numbers of coronavirus cases stoked fears of a damaging second wave. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1053 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 27.1000 27.1200 +0.07% -6.15% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 357.950 358.5000 +0.15% -7.49% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.4922 4.5034 +0.25% -5.25% zloty > EURRON= Romanian <EURRON= 4.8655 4.8670 +0.03% -1.59% leu > EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5660 7.5635 -0.03% -1.59% kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.550 117.5800 +0.03% +0.02 dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 862.17 857.7200 +0.52% -22.72 % .BUX Budapest 33486.6 33449.84 +0.11% -27.33 5 % .WIG20 Warsaw 1724.33 1697.39 +1.59% -19.80 % .BETI Buchares 8900.01 8879.96 +0.23% -10.80 t % .SBITOP Ljubljan <.SBITOP 848.08 845.36 +0.32% -8.40% a > .CRBEX Zagreb 1608.12 1608.86 -0.05% -20.29 % .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 693.88 694.84 -0.14% -13.45 5 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 420.63 420.33 +0.07% -25.96 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT=R 0.0890 -0.0060 +080bp +0bps R R> s CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT=R 0.4880 -0.0280 +122bp -2bps R R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 0.8590 0.0010 +139bp +0bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT=R 0.0360 0.0000 +075bp +1bps R R> s PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT=R 0.5780 -0.0100 +131bp +0bps R R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.3370 0.0090 +187bp +1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech 0.29 0.29 0.35 0.35 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 1.00 1.05 1.10 0.77 Poland 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.22 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************** **************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Toby Chopra)

CEE MARKETS-Currencies, stocks weaken in risk-off mood as Trump tests positive

02 Oct 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Oct 2 Central European stocks and currencies weakened on Friday in a global risk-off mood after U.S. President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19, prompting uncertainty around a new fiscal stimulus package and the outcome of the presidential election. Currencies slid, giving up some of their gains from the previous days. The Czech crown was down 0.17% and trading at 26.905 per euro and the Polish zloty weakened 0.38% to 4.4940 to the euro. The Hungarian forint edged down 0.02% to 358.84 per euro after gaining more than 1% in the previous session. The currency was supported by comments from the central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag, Equilor said in a morning note. The central bank will use its one-week deposit rate to combat inflation risks stemming from volatile global sentiment that has weighed on emerging-market assets, including the forint, Virag told Reuters on Thursday. "We interpret the statement as another way of saying that a weaker currency can lead to another deposit rate hike," Morgan Stanley wrote in a note. The central bank kept the interest rate on its one-week deposit facility unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday after raising it by 15 basis points last week. "The decision was due to a stabilisation in the HUF after last week's hike but was somewhat contrary to market pricing. Despite that, the HUF continued to appreciate, likely driven by global factors," Morgan Stanley added. Central European stock markets weakened, tracking their European peers. Budapest's blue-chip index was down 0.41% by 0837 GMT and Warsaw's stocks slid 0.56%. Bucharest's equities fell 0.98%. Prague's stock market was down 0.17%. Czech firearms maker CZG-Ceska Zbrojovka shares rose as much as 4.8% on its Prague debut after having to cut its offer sharply. Sources had told Reuters on Thursday the listing drew weak demand. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1037 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 26.9050 26.8600 -0.17% -5.47% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 358.840 358.7600 -0.02% -7.72% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.4940 4.4776 -0.36% -5.29% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.8745 4.8749 +0.01% -1.77% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5600 7.5620 +0.03% -1.52% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.530 117.5800 +0.04% +0.03% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 857.69 859.1100 -0.17% -23.12% .BUX Budapes 33520.6 33657.71 -0.41% -27.26% t 5 .WIG20 Warsaw 1684.69 1694.18 -0.56% -21.65% .BETI Buchare 8911.86 9000.43 -0.98% -10.68% st .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 854.08 854.53 -0.05% -7.75% na > .CRBEX Zagreb 1607.81 1608.30 -0.03% -20.30% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 691.95 691.83 +0.02% -13.69% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 423.62 425.63 -0.47% -25.44% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.0900 0.0180 +080bp +3bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 0.5010 0.0150 +123bp +3bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 0.8830 0.0490 +142bp +6bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.0350 -0.0230 +075bp -1bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.5660 -0.0280 +130bp -2bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.3170 -0.0060 +186bp +1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.35 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 1.05 1.06 1.10 0.77 Poland 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; editing by Uttaresh.V)

CEE MARKETS-Currencies, stocks mixed as coronavirus worries persist

30 Sep 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Sept 30 Central European currencies and stock markets were mixed on Tuesday as a surge in coronavirus numbers and a chaotic U.S. presidential debate worried investors. "The FX market in the region is fragile because of the uncertainties in the world and just one piece of bad news can hit currencies like the forint very hard," a Budapest-based FX trader said. The Hungarian forint was up 0.26% and trading at 364.65 per euro. "The last day of the quarter usually brings big flows and a strengthening of the forint. This is not a turn in the trend," the trader added. Elsewhere, the Czech crown edged up 0.09% to 27.1500 per euro. The Polish zloty slid 0.04% and was trading at 4.5280 versus the common currency after gaining 1.3% in the previous session, its biggest intra-day gain since May. Analysts said the jump in the zloty's exchange rate was a correction as previous losses were overdone and not justified by fundamentals. "After such noticeable zloty strengthening and unsuccessful attempt to break 4.60, the Polish currency shall not be under pressure in the short-term," Santander Bank Polska wrote. Central European currencies came under pressure in September from a surge in coronavirus cases and a strengthening of the dollar. The Czech crown slid 3.5% versus the euro this month. The forint weakened 2.7% while the Polish zloty was down 3.1%. "The forint is subject to maximum downside risk because of an ultra-dovish central bank which has dropped its real interest rate to deeper negative territory," Commerzbank said in a note. The Czech ministry of finance holds a bond auction later today. Ten-year bond yields have dropped to their lowest since early August in the past week. A Reuters poll last week showed expectations of rising Czech yields in the months ahead. CEE stocks slid on Wednesday, tracking other European markets. Warsaw's equities led losses, dropping 0.48%. Budapest's blue-chip index was down 0.19% and Prague's stocks slid 0.1%. Bucharest's equities edged down 0.08%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1057 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK 27.1500 27.1740 +0.09% -6.33% crown => EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF 364.650 365.6000 +0.26% -9.19% forint => 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN 4.5280 4.5263 -0.04% -6.00% zloty => EURRON= Romanian <EURRON 4.8705 4.8690 -0.03% -1.69% leu => EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK 7.5500 7.5475 -0.03% -1.39% kuna => EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD 117.500 117.6000 +0.09% +0.06 dinar => 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 863.12 862.2800 +0.10% -22.63 % .BUX Budapest 32642.8 32677.72 -0.11% -29.16 0 % .WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 1710.41 1718.21 -0.45% -20.45 > % .BETI Bucharest 9001.66 9008.04 -0.07% -9.78% .SBITOP Ljubljana <.SBITO 848.96 845.17 +0.45% -8.31% P> .CRBEX Zagreb <.CRBEX 1606.18 1607.90 -0.11% -20.38 > % .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX 687.76 687.76 +0.00% -14.21 5 15> % .SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 424.66 426.90 -0.52% -25.25 > % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT= 0.0670 -0.0060 +077bp +0bps R RR> s CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT= 0.4700 -0.0800 +120bp -8bps R RR> s CZ10YT= 10-year <CZ10YT 0.8330 -0.0440 +138bp -4bps RR =RR> s Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT= 0.0700 -0.0200 +078bp -1bps R RR> s PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT= 0.5800 -0.0290 +131bp -2bps R RR> s PL10YT= 10-year <PL10YT 1.2990 -0.0040 +185bp +0bps RR =RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech Rep <CZKFRA 0.29 0.29 0.36 0.34 ><PRIBO R=> Hungary <HUFFRA 1.13 1.19 1.24 0.76 ><BUBOR => Poland <PLNFRA 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.22 ><WIBOR => Note: FRA are for ask quotes prices ********************************************** **************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; editing by Larry King)

CEE MARKETS-Stocks firm, Moody's outlook upgrade fails to lift forint

28 Sep 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Sept 28 Central European currencies were mixed on Monday, with little reaction in the Hungarian forint after Moody's raised the country's ratings outlook to positive from stable late last week. Stock markets firmed across the region, tracking positive market sentiment in the U.S. and Asia. Ratings agency Moody's on Friday raised Hungary's sovereign rating outlook, citing the strong recent performance of the economy and improvements in the country's domestic and external debt position. "The forint's exchange rate did not react to Moody's raising Hungary's outlook, it could move between 361-365 versus the euro," Equilor said in a note. The forint lost 0.11% to trade at 364.00 per euro. The currency came under pressure from a spike in coronavirus cases and fell to five-month lows last week. It recouped some of its losses on Thursday after the central bank unexpectedly raised the interest rate on its one-week deposit facility. "The overbought trade and the central bank's announcement together were enough to temporarily consolidate the euro-forint exchange rate," Erste Bank wrote in a note, adding that it expects the forint to move sideways versus the euro this week. The Romanian leu edged up 0.02% to 4.8770 versus the common currency. Analysts said Sunday's election result helped ease some of the political uncertainty that has weighed on Romanian assets. Romania's ruling centrist Liberals emerged as the leading party in a municipal ballot on Sunday. Raiffeisen said the results strengthen the prospect of centrist parties being able to secure a majority at parliamentary elections on Dec. 6 and "lay the foundations of a prudent fiscal policy path going forward." Elsewhere, the Polish zloty was up 0.09% at 4.5485 per euro, helped by the broader risk-on mood, a Warsaw-based currency trader said. "But basically the zloty is range-bound, we're going to trade in the 4.53-4.56 range for the next couple of days," he added. Budapest's index led gains in the region, strengthening 1.83% by 0851 GMT. Warsaw's equities were up 1.71% while Bucharest's stock market firmed 1.02%. Markets in Prague were closed for a holiday. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1051 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 27.1790 27.1280 -0.19% -6.43% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 364.000 363.6100 -0.11% -9.03% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5485 4.5525 +0.09 -6.42% zloty > % EURRON= Romanian <EURRON= 4.8770 4.8780 +0.02 -1.82% leu > % EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5500 7.5495 -0.01% -1.39% kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.600 117.6000 +0.00 -0.03% dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 863.93 863.9300 +0.00 -22.56 % % .BUX Budapest 32518.8 31933.26 +1.83 -29.43 9 % % .WIG20 Warsaw 1702.81 1674.14 +1.71 -20.80 % % .BETI Bucharest 9053.06 8961.59 +1.02 -9.26% % .SBITOP Ljubljana <.SBITOP 859.92 845.24 +1.74 -7.12% > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1621.01 1618.76 +0.14 -19.65 % % .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 693.68 693.46 +0.03 -13.47 5 5> % % .SOFIX Sofia 422.60 422.58 +0.00 -25.62 % % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT=R 0.0500 -0.0290 +075b -3bps R R> ps CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT=R 0.5570 -0.0080 +127b -1bps R R> ps CZ10YT= 10-year <CZ10YT= 0.8490 -0.0280 +136b -4bps RR RR> ps Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT=R 0.0800 -0.0050 +078b -1bps R R> ps PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT=R 0.6180 -0.0230 +133b -3bps R R> ps PL10YT= 10-year <PL10YT= 1.3080 0.0040 +182b -1bps RR RR> ps FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech Rep 0.30 0.30 0.36 0.34 <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.98 1.04 1.09 0.74 Poland 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.22 Note: FRA are for ask quotes prices ********************************************** **************** (Additional reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

CEE MARKETS-Forint firms against euro on deposit facility rate hike

25 Sep 2020

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Sept 25 The Hungarian forint firmed for a second straight session on Friday, after the central bank raised interest rate on its one-week deposit facility. The forint was up 0.32% at 362.640 against the euro. The currency came under pressure recently, hitting a five-month low earlier this week, as traders remained wary about the economic effects of a coronavirus resurgence. Hungary's central bank unexpectedly raised the interest rate on its one-week deposit facility by 15 basis points to 0.75% on Thursday at a tender, after keeping all of its main rates unchanged earlier this week. The rate hike immediately lifted the forint, but analysts say that the effect could be temporary and the forint will likely stay above the 360 level. "The strengthening is a short-term correction. In this negative global sentiment, I expect the forint to weaken back to levels of 365-366 in the next few days," a Budapest-based forex trader said. "The rate hike is a double-edged sword. Foreign investors could try and speculate on this in the future, and thus, weaken the forint," she added. "Foreign investors started weakening the forint on Monday, then the central bank stepped in," another trader said. "They will keep testing the bank. If the cat jumps on the new toy mouse, someone will keep playing with that toy." Elsewhere, the Czech crown gained 0.65% and was trading at 26.991 while the Polish zloty firmed 0.21% to 4.5515. The Romanian leu 4.8790 edged down 0.07% to 4.8790. Stock markets recouped some of their losses from the previous session, as a rebound in U.S. equities lifted sentiment. Budapest's stocks led gains in the region, firming 0.75%, while Prague's equities were up 0.22%. Warsaw's blue chip index gained 0.27%, while Bucharest was up 0.62%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1014 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2020 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 26.9910 27.1660 +0.65% -5.78% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 362.640 363.7900 +0.32% -8.68% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5515 4.5611 +0.21% -6.48% zloty > EURRON= Romanian <EURRON= 4.8790 4.8756 -0.07% -1.86% leu > EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5499 7.5505 +0.01% -1.38% kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.500 117.6000 +0.09% +0.06 dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2020 .PX Prague 864.96 863.0900 +0.22% -22.47 % .BUX Budapest 32136.3 31898.01 +0.75% -30.26 5 % .WIG20 Warsaw 1670.48 1665.96 +0.27% -22.31 % .BETI Buchares 9086.45 9030.78 +0.62% -8.93% t .SBITOP Ljubljan <.SBITOP 851.40 846.80 +0.54% -8.04% a > .CRBEX Zagreb 1637.29 1638.11 -0.05% -18.84 % .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 692.38 691.80 +0.08% -13.63 5 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 423.39 425.21 -0.43% -25.48 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT=R 0.0650 -0.0200 +076bp -2bps R R> s CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT=R 0.5280 -0.0380 +124bp -4bps R R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 0.8650 -0.0120 +138bp -1bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT=R 0.0440 -0.0410 +074bp -4bps R R> s PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT=R 0.6310 -0.0270 +134bp -3bps R R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.3230 -0.0150 +184bp -1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech 0.30 0.30 0.36 0.34 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 1.00 1.05 1.11 0.65 Poland 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************** **************** (Reporting by Anita Komuves; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

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