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India

Anushka Trivedi

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks, currencies weaken as vaccine rally fades

12 Nov 2020

* Bullish bets raised on Asian emerging currencies - Reuters poll * Palm oil shares boost Malaysia stock index * Philippine stock markets closed due to typhoon * Bank Indonesia sees room to ease rates -central bank governor By Anushka Trivedi Nov 12 Most of emerging Asian currencies and stock markets settled back in cautious trade on Thursday after the initial burst of optimism over headway in a coronavirus vaccine trial. Thai stocks led losses with a 1% drop, followed by Indonesia and Singapore, giving up some gains from a rally earlier this week that was powered by positive coronavirus vaccine news from U.S. drug maker Pfizer Inc . Most regional currencies drifted lower against a steady greenback, although the Taiwanese dollar was an outlier, jumping more than 1% for a second straight day. "Challenges remain on the time horizon, manufacturing capacity, delivery and storage of the vaccine even if it is proven safe and effective," DailyFX strategist Margaret Yang wrote in a note. Concerns about distribution of the vaccine were at the forefront, especially in highly populated countries like India and Indonesia, which lack infrastructure required to carry out such a large-scale operation. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.5%, marking its worst session in almost two-weeks, as its central bank said there was room to ease rates to support economic growth. The currency had firmed on the vaccine news and recent capital inflows but investors are taking a pause ahead of the central bank meeting next week, Bank of Singapore FX analyst Moh Siong Sim said. He said it was a "close call" whether Bank Indonesia would actually slash interest-rates since it has favoured stabilising rupiah in the past. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll showed investors went long on all Asian emerging currencies but sentiment towards the Indian rupee remained frail on suspicions that the country's central bank was curbing its appreciation by buying dollars. Among equity markets, Malaysia's benchmark index rose 1% to be the sole gainer, lifted by palm oil producers as prices of the commodity climbed. Meanwhile, the Philippine stock markets were closed due to a typhoon. HIGHLIGHTS ** Thailand's 10-year government bond yields are down 2.5 basis points at 1.37% ** Top gainers on Malaysia index: Genting Bhd , up 4%, and Genting Malaysia Bhd, up​ 2.6% ** Top losers on Thailand's SETI include Thai Energy Storage Technology PCL , down 28.9%, and Apex Development PCL, down 14.3% Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0730 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS DAILY % STOCKS YTD % Japan +0.14 +3.17 0.68 7.88 China +0.01 +5.04 -0.11 9.46 India -0.32 -4.34 -0.34 4.42 Indonesia -0.50 -1.84 -0.90 -13.33 Malaysia -0.15 -1.06 0.95 -0.23 Philippines +0.15 +4.55 - -10.12 S.Korea -0.43 +3.73 -0.41 12.65 Singapore -0.09 -0.43 -0.26 -16.03 Taiwan +0.45 +4.89 -0.30 10.21 Thailand -0.13 -1.32 -1.24 -15.90 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks, currencies weaken as vaccine rally fades

12 Nov 2020

* Bullish bets raised on Asian emerging currencies - Reuters poll * Palm oil shares boost Malaysia stock index * Philippine stock markets closed due to typhoon * Bank Indonesia sees room to ease rates -central bank governor By Anushka Trivedi Nov 11 Most of emerging Asian currencies and stock markets settled back in cautious trade on Thursday after the initial burst of optimism over headway in a coronavirus vaccine trial. Thai stocks led losses with a 1% drop, followed by Indonesia and Singapore, giving up some gains from a rally earlier this week that was powered by positive coronavirus vaccine news from U.S. drug maker Pfizer Inc . Most regional currencies drifted lower against a steady greenback, although the Taiwanese dollar was an outlier, jumping more than 1% for a second straight day. "Challenges remain on the time horizon, manufacturing capacity, delivery and storage of the vaccine even if it is proven safe and effective," DailyFX strategist Margaret Yang wrote in a note. Concerns about distribution of the vaccine were at the forefront, especially in highly populated countries like India and Indonesia, which lack infrastructure required to carry out such a large-scale operation. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.5%, marking its worst session in almost two-weeks, as its central bank said there was room to ease rates to support economic growth. The currency had firmed on the vaccine news and recent capital inflows but investors are taking a pause ahead of the central bank meeting next week, Bank of Singapore FX analyst Moh Siong Sim said. He said it was a "close call" whether Bank Indonesia would actually slash interest-rates since it has favoured stabilising rupiah in the past. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll showed investors went long on all Asian emerging currencies but sentiment towards the Indian rupee remained frail on suspicions that the country's central bank was curbing its appreciation by buying dollars. Among equity markets, Malaysia's benchmark index rose 1% to be the sole gainer, lifted by palm oil producers as prices of the commodity climbed. Meanwhile, the Philippine stock markets were closed due to a typhoon. HIGHLIGHTS ** Thailand's 10-year government bond yields are down 2.5 basis points at 1.37% ** Top gainers on Malaysia index: Genting Bhd , up 4%, and Genting Malaysia Bhd, up​ 2.6% ** Top losers on Thailand's SETI include Thai Energy Storage Technology PCL , down 28.9%, and Apex Development PCL, down 14.3% Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0730 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS DAILY % STOCKS YTD % Japan +0.14 +3.17 0.68 7.88 China +0.01 +5.04 -0.11 9.46 India -0.32 -4.34 -0.34 4.42 Indonesia -0.50 -1.84 -0.90 -13.33 Malaysia -0.15 -1.06 0.95 -0.23 Philippines +0.15 +4.55 - -10.12 S.Korea -0.43 +3.73 -0.41 12.65 Singapore -0.09 -0.43 -0.26 -16.03 Taiwan +0.45 +4.89 -0.30 10.21 Thailand -0.13 -1.32 -1.24 -15.90 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

EMERGING MARKETS-Most Asian stocks, currencies slip as vaccine rally cools

12 Nov 2020

* Bullish bets raised on Asian emerging currencies - Reuters poll * India Oct CPI due later in the day * Philippine stock markets closed as typhoon lashes Luzon island By Anushka Trivedi Nov 12Most of emerging Asian currencies and stock markets settled back in cautious trade on Thursday after the initial burst of optimism over headway in a coronavirus vaccine trial. Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore equities slipped between 0.3% to 0.6% after raking in gains earlier this week on U.S. drugmaker Pfizer reporting 90% efficacy in its late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial. Regional currencies traded sideways, with most drifting lower against a broadly stronger greenback, although the Taiwanese dollar remained an outlier, jumping over 1% for a second straight day. "Asia markets are seen trading mixed after the initial euphoria cooled and with the region returning to the wait-and-see mode," said Jingyi Pan, a Singapore-based market strategist with financial services firm IG. Concerns about distribution of the vaccine were at the forefront, especially in highly populated countries like India and Indonesia, which lack infrastructure required to carry out such a large-scale operation. "Challenges remains on the time horizon, manufacturing capacity, deliver and storage of the vaccine even if it is proven safe and effective," Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX said in a note. "Many developing countries may risk a shortage of funds, and a lack of cold-chain logistics to facilitate the mass distribution of the vaccine," she added. The Indonesian rupiah underperformed its peers as it fell 0.4%, marking its worst session in almost two-weeks. Investors went long on all trade-linked currencies after Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election, a Reuters poll found, with the rupiah benefiting especially since a drop in Treasury yields raised Indonesia's high-yielding bonds' appeal. However, sentiment towards the Indian rupee remained relatively weak due to suspicions that India's central bank was curbing its appreciation by buying dollars. Traders were watching out for India's October inflation data due later in the day, as it is expected to remain above the central bank's desired range, erasing chances of an interest-rate cut in December. Indian stocks were 0.2% lower in early morning trade. Meanwhile, the Philippine stock markets were closed due to a typhoon. Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0442 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS DAILY % STOCKS YTD % Japan +0.15 +3.18 -0.13 7.02 China +0.19 +5.22 -0.20 9.35 India -0.03 -4.06 -0.49 4.26 Indonesia -0.42 -1.77 -0.59 -13.05 Malaysia -0.15 -1.06 0.54 -0.64 Philippin +0.12 +4.52 - -10.12 es S.Korea -0.39 +3.78 -0.61 12.42 Singapore +0.01 -0.33 -0.37 -16.12 Taiwan +1.10 +5.57 -0.29 10.22 Thailand +0.03 -1.16 -0.88 -15.59 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks mixed as investors assess vaccine news; baht at 10-month high

11 Nov 2020

* Graphic: Real yield of Asian bonds https://tmsnrt.rs/2GI4V8h * S. Korea stocks, won higher after export data * S. Korea's KOSPI marks highest close since May 2018 * Baht at 10-month high By Anushka Trivedi Nov 11 Stock markets in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines declined by up to 1% on Wednesday, as this week's burst of market optimism about progress on coronavirus vaccines faded. Investors switched to discounted losers from coronavirus winners on Tuesday, fuelling a rally in travel and energy shares, after drugmakers Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE showed a 90% success rate in preventing infection during trials. "While some concerns remain with respect to the safety and distribution of any viable COVID-19 vaccines, it appears that investors have largely adopted a wait-and-see attitude at this point," said Jingyi Pan, a Singapore-based market strategist with financial services firm IG. Other regional stock indexes also came off their highs touched since the U.S. election, although South Korea's KOSPI jumped 1.4% to mark its highest close in more than two-years. South Korea, considered a bellwether for global trade, reported a surge in 10-day exports, driven by strong semiconductor demand, helping the won advance 0.5%. The Thai baht firmed 0.8% to hit a 10-month peak as foreigners bought into the country's stocks and debt after vaccine progress boosted prospects for the economy dominated by trade and tourism. Yields on Thai sovereign bonds have been quite attractive in Asia, after those of Malaysia and Indonesia, as they benefit from the chances of a divided U.S. Congress that may result in a slimmer round of stimulus and cap long-term Treasury yields. Headway on a vaccine bodes well for the ailing Thai economy, but the pandemic will remain a key factor in determining the baht's movement in the near term, said Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank. "If the COVID-19 outbreak is still not under control and there's no further positive development in distribution of the vaccine, the market sentiment could shift from risk-on to risk-off, adding to the U.S. dollar's strength," he added Most other emerging Asia's currencies were rangebound against a subdued greenback, with the Taiwanese dollar again firming more than 1% to outperform its peers. HIGHLIGHTS ** Thai baht on track to advance about 2.5% since U.S. election ** Top losers on Malaysia index: IHH Healthcare, down 3.36% and Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd, down 2.93% ** Top drags on Singapore's STI: Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust and Mapletree Industrial Trust , down 6.3% and 4.3%, respectively Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0641 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS DAILY % STOCKS YTD % Japan -0.02 +3.14 1.78 7.16 China +0.23 +5.49 -0.38 9.75 India -0.10 -3.88 -0.29 3.51 Indonesia -0.21 -1.35 0.95 -12.46 Malaysia -0.05 -0.75 -0.88 -1.74 Philippines -0.02 +4.87 -0.16 -10.12 S.Korea +0.46 +4.18 1.35 13.11 Singapore +0.13 -0.13 -0.32 -16.33 Taiwan +1.21 +5.60 1.38 10.54 Thailand +0.83 -0.96 0.82 -14.40 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks mixed as investors assess vaccine news; baht at 10-month high

11 Nov 2020

* Graphic: Real yield of Asian bonds https://tmsnrt.rs/2GI4V8h * S. Korea stocks, won higher after export data * S. Korea's KOSPI marks highest close since May, 2018 * Baht at 10-month high By Anushka Trivedi Nov 11 Stock markets in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines declined by up to 1% on Wednesday, as this week's burst of market optimism about progress on coronavirus vaccines faded. Investors switched to discounted losers from coronavirus winners on Tuesday, fuelling a rally in travel and energy shares, after drugmakers Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE showed a 90% success rate in preventing infection during trials. "While some concerns remain with respect to the safety and distribution of any viable COVID-19 vaccines, it appears that investors have largely adopted a wait-and-see attitude at this point," said Jingyi Pan, a Singapore-based market strategist with financial services firm IG. Other regional stock indexes also came off their highs touched since the U.S. election, although South Korea's KOSPI jumped 1.4% to mark its highest close in more than two-years. South Korea, considered a bellwether for global trade, reported a surge in 10-day exports, driven by strong semiconductor demand, helping the won advance 0.5%. The Thai baht firmed 0.8% to hit a 10-month peak as foreigners bought into the country's stocks and debt after vaccine progress boosted prospects for the economy dominated by trade and tourism. Yields on Thai sovereign bonds have been quite attractive in Asia, after those of Malaysia and Indonesia, as they benefit from the chances of a divided U.S. Congress that may result in a slimmer round of stimulus and cap long-term Treasury yields. Headway on a vaccine bodes well for the ailing Thai economy, but the pandemic will remain a key factor in determining the baht's movement in the near term, said Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank. "If the COVID-19 outbreak is still not under control and there's no further positive development in distribution of the vaccine, the market sentiment could shift from risk-on to risk-off, adding to the U.S. dollar's strength," he added Most other emerging Asia's currencies were rangebound against a subdued greenback, with the Taiwanese dollar again firming more than 1% to outperform its peers. HIGHLIGHTS ** Thai baht on track to advance about 2.5% since U.S. election ** Top losers on Malaysia index: IHH Healthcare, down 3.36% and Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd, down 2.93% ** Top drags on Singapore's STI: Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust and Mapletree Industrial Trust , down 6.3% and 4.3%, respectively Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0641 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS DAILY % STOCKS YTD % Japan -0.02 +3.14 1.78 7.16 China +0.23 +5.49 -0.38 9.75 India -0.10 -3.88 -0.29 3.51 Indonesia -0.21 -1.35 0.95 -12.46 Malaysia -0.05 -0.75 -0.88 -1.74 Philippines -0.02 +4.87 -0.16 -10.12 S.Korea +0.46 +4.18 1.35 13.11 Singapore +0.13 -0.13 -0.32 -16.33 Taiwan +1.21 +5.60 1.38 10.54 Thailand +0.83 -0.96 0.82 -14.40 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

CORRECTED-EMERGING MARKETS-Thai baht at 10-month high on foreign buying of bonds, stocks

11 Nov 2020

(Corrects first bullet point in Highlights section to read yields are down so far this week, not up) * Thai baht adds about 2.5% since U.S. election * Vaccine distribution timeline a risk to baht - analyst * Malaysia, Singapore stocks drop By Anushka Trivedi Nov 11 Thailand's baht hit a 10-month peak on Wednesday as foreign investors flocked to the country's high-yielding debt and equity markets after progress in a COVID-19 vaccine trial lifted prospects for the trade- and tourism-dominated economy. The baht firmed as much as 0.8% to 30.210 against the dollar, bringing its gains to about 2.5% since the U.S. election last week resulted in Joe Biden winning the presidency. Local stocks were up 0.5%. Drugmakers Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE flagged a 90% efficacy rate for their vaccine over the weekend, compounding gains in Asia that had been buoyed by Biden's win as he is expected to be less hawkish on trade compared to Donald Trump. Democrat Biden's new administration and the high chances that Republicans will keep control of the Senate will result in a slimmer round of new stimulus and may cap U.S. long-term yields, adding to the appeal of Asian bonds offering high real yields. "The gains in baht are driven by foreign inflows...they have been net buyers of equity and fixed income last week," Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank said. Progress on a vaccine bodes well for the ailing economy as it counts exports and tourism as its main sources of revenue generation, but the pandemic still remains a key factor in determining the baht's movement in the near-term. "If the COVID-19 outbreak is still not under control and there's no further positive development in distribution of the vaccine, the market sentiment could shift from risk-on to risk-off, adding to the U.S. dollar's strength," Poon said. Other currencies were rangebound against a tepid greenback, with the Taiwanese dollar again firming more than 1% to outperform its peers. Meanwhile, stock markets in Singapore and Malaysia declined 0.5% and 1%, respectively, after a euphoric rally in the previous session was sparked by the vaccine news. HIGHLIGHTS ** Thailand's 10-year government bond yield down about 3.8% this week ** Top losers on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kl Index include IHH Healthcare Bhd down 3.36% and Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd down 2.93% ** Top drags on the Singapore STI include: Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust down 6.3% and Mapletree Industrial Trust down 4.3% Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0434 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS STOCKS YTD % DAILY % Japan +0.15 +3.32 1.75 7.12 China +0.29 +5.55 0.09 10.26 India -0.11 -3.88 1.01 4.85 Indonesia -0.14 -1.28 0.85 -12.55 Malaysia -0.05 -0.75 -1.05 -1.90 Philippines +0.06 +4.95 0.05 -9.93 S.Korea +0.30 +4.01 1.14 12.89 Singapore +0.11 -0.16 -0.54 -16.52 Taiwan +1.20 +5.58 0.98 10.11 Thailand +0.66 -1.12 0.48 -14.69 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim Coghill)

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks buoyed as vaccine progress brightens trade, tourism outlook

10 Nov 2020

* Travel stocks buoy Singapore, Thailand * Tech-heavy China, Taiwan stock indexes drop * Philippine economy contracts in Q3, govt says 'worst is over' By Anushka Trivedi Nov 10 Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia drove stock market gains in Asia on Tuesday after results from a late-stage COVID-19 vaccine trial fuelled optimism about the easing of global restrictions, which should help the region's tourism- and trade-dependent economies next year. Battered sectors including airline, travel and tourism were beneficiaries after drugmaker Pfizer and German partner BioNTech said their experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia indexes were up between 2% and 3.6%, but those of tech-heavy Taiwan and China were the biggest losers. "The markets have reacted very quickly, anticipating likely future announcements for new vaccines," said Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam. "With the vaccine announcement coinciding with the election of Joe Biden as the next U.S. president – and the reduction in political risk this entails – it seems that the stars have aligned today for markets." Philippine equities rallied more than 5%, brushing off a steep economic slump in the third quarter and helped by government assurances that the economy would rebound in 2021. However, local currency markets were subdued as the greenback rebounded. Only the Taiwanese dollar stood out with a 1% gain after the island reported an expectation-beating surge in October exports. "The market has priced out election risks and is starting to price in the transition to a more conventional economic crisis, away from the pandemic crisis," DBS Bank analysts in Singapore wrote in a note. That could keep the dollar supported in the long-term and pose a challenge for Asian currencies, they added. The net oil-exporter Malaysia's ringgit weakened the most, as crude prices slumped on worries over demand in coronavirus-hit Europe and the United States. HIGHLIGHTS ** Indonesian 10-year benchmark yields were down about 2.2 basis points at 6.241% ** Singapore Airlines soars 20% to near five-month high ** Malaysia top gainers: Genting Bhd up 17.4% and Genting Malaysia Bhd up 13.7%, while glove makers Top Glove and Hartalega Holdings slumped Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0645 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS STOCKS YTD % DAILY % Japan +0.24 +3.33 0.26 5.28 China +0.17 +5.23 -0.60 9.94 India -0.06 -3.81 0.80 3.22 Indonesia +0.00 -1.21 1.64 -13.58 Malaysia -0.36 -0.78 2.04 -2.10 Philippines -0.01 +4.92 5.23 -9.98 S.Korea -0.11 +3.70 0.23 11.61 Singapore +0.01 -0.20 2.61 -16.92 Taiwan +1.08 +5.58 -0.35 9.04 Thailand +0.13 -1.97 3.16 -16.03 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Swati Pandey; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks firm as vaccine progress lifts trade outlook

10 Nov 2020

(Repeats for additional subscribers. No change to text.) * Travel stocks propel Asian equities higher * Indonesian rupiah at strongest level since June 18 * Philippine economy contracts in Q3 By Anushka Trivedi Nov 10 Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia led stock market gains in Asia on Tuesday after results from a late-stage COVID-19 vaccine trial fuelled optimism about a global reopening, which would help the region's tourism- and trade-dependent economies. Other emerging currency and equities also rose as the vaccine news came right after Joe Biden's presidential election win over the weekend eased U.S. political uncertainty. Overnight, Wall Street benchmarks closed just shy of record highs after drugmaker Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech said that a large-scale trial of their vaccine showed it was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Airline, cruise ship and hotel operators lifted share markets in most of Asia, with Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia indexes up between 1.5% to 2.9%. "The clearing of the election fog has permitted underlying market fundamentals to come back into focus, resulting in a strong push upwards," Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors said. "The most recent vaccine news suggests 'return to normality' should be coming sooner rather than later... all the chips are starting to line up, and market sentiment may be in the early stages of a burst of positive energy." Philippine equities rallied more than 3%, brushing off a steep economic slump in the third quarter and helped by government assurances that the economy would rebound in 2021. Local currency markets also inched higher and the Taiwanese dollar stood out with a 1% rise after the island reported an expectation-beating surge in October exports. Citi said it expected Taiwan's dollar to continue to strengthen in the medium-term on its regional economic outperformance. The Indonesian rupiah, which has benefited from a surge in bond inflows lately, firmed 0.3% to its highest since June 18. However, among global emerging markets, the Turkish lira fell 2% against the dollar. Global ratings agency S&P expressed concern about Turkey's sudden replacement of its central bank governor and the departure of its finance minister. HIGHLIGHTS ** Indonesian 10-year benchmark yields are down 3 basis points at 6.234% ** Singapore Airlines soars 20% to near 5-month high ** Malaysia top gainers: Genting Bhd up 15.1% and Genting Malaysia Bhd up 12.3%, while glove makers Top Glove and Hartalega Holdings slumped Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0317 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS STOCKS YTD DAILY % % Japan +0.49 +3.59 1.08 6.14 China +0.18 +5.25 -0.04 10.57 India +0.00 -3.76 0.00 2.40 Indonesia +0.29 -0.93 1.49 -13.71 Malaysia -0.17 -0.58 1.60 -2.52 Philippine +0.03 +4.97 3.51 -11.45 s S.Korea -0.18 +3.63 -0.10 11.25 Singapore +0.07 -0.14 2.90 -16.68 Taiwan +1.09 +5.59 -0.24 9.16 Thailand +0.44 -1.66 2.53 -16.55 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Sam Holmes)

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks firm as vaccine progress lifts trade outlook

10 Nov 2020

* Travel stocks propel Asian equities higher * Indonesian rupiah at strongest level since June 18 * Philippine economy contracts in Q3 By Anushka Trivedi Nov 10 Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia led stock market gains in Asia on Tuesday after results from a late-stage COVID-19 vaccine trial fuelled optimism about a global reopening, which would help the region's tourism- and trade-dependent economies. Other emerging currency and equities also rose as the vaccine news came right after Joe Biden's presidential election win over the weekend eased U.S. political uncertainty. Overnight, Wall Street benchmarks closed just shy of record highs after drugmaker Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech said that a large-scale trial of their vaccine showed it was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Airline, cruise ship and hotel operators lifted share markets in most of Asia, with Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia indexes up between 1.5% to 2.9%. "The clearing of the election fog has permitted underlying market fundamentals to come back into focus, resulting in a strong push upwards," Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors said. "The most recent vaccine news suggests 'return to normality' should be coming sooner rather than later... all the chips are starting to line up, and market sentiment may be in the early stages of a burst of positive energy." Philippine equities rallied more than 3%, brushing off a steep economic slump in the third quarter and helped by government assurances that the economy would rebound in 2021. Local currency markets also inched higher and the Taiwanese dollar stood out with a 1% rise after the island reported an expectation-beating surge in October exports. Citi said it expected Taiwan's dollar to continue to strengthen in the medium-term on its regional economic outperformance. The Indonesian rupiah, which has benefited from a surge in bond inflows lately, firmed 0.3% to its highest since June 18. However, among global emerging markets, the Turkish lira fell 2% against the dollar. Global ratings agency S&P expressed concern about Turkey's sudden replacement of its central bank governor and the departure of its finance minister. HIGHLIGHTS ** Indonesian 10-year benchmark yields are down 3 basis points at 6.234% ** Singapore Airlines soars 20% to near 5-month high ** Malaysia top gainers: Genting Bhd up 15.1% and Genting Malaysia Bhd up 12.3%, while glove makers Top Glove and Hartalega Holdings slumped Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0317 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS STOCKS YTD DAILY % % Japan +0.49 +3.59 1.08 6.14 China +0.18 +5.25 -0.04 10.57 India +0.00 -3.76 0.00 2.40 Indonesia +0.29 -0.93 1.49 -13.71 Malaysia -0.17 -0.58 1.60 -2.52 Philippine +0.03 +4.97 3.51 -11.45 s S.Korea -0.18 +3.63 -0.10 11.25 Singapore +0.07 -0.14 2.90 -16.68 Taiwan +1.09 +5.59 -0.24 9.16 Thailand +0.44 -1.66 2.53 -16.55 (Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Sam Holmes)

EMERGING MARKETS-Asia FX, stocks rise as Biden leads U.S. election race; rupiah firms over 1%

06 Nov 2020

* Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh * Graphic: Foreign flows into Asian stocks https://tmsnrt.rs/3lKhL5I * Indonesia 10-year bond prices rise most since March 20 * Malaysia budget due at 0800 GMT * Most stock indexes headed for weekly gains By Anushka Trivedi Nov 6 Indonesia's rupiah firmed more than 1% on Friday and was set to mark its best week since June, while other emerging Asian currencies and stock markets also gained as Democrat Joe Biden edged closer to victory in the U.S. presidential election. The rupiah hit a four-month high against the dollar and was set to advance around 2.6% for the week, as Thursday's drop in Treasury yields to near three-week lows encouraged investors to push funds into Indonesia's high-yielding debt. Expectations of a divided U.S. Congress that will struggle to pass major fiscal stimulus has stoked expectations this week that the Federal Reserve will have to continue to pump more cash into the economy through bond-buying and other emergency measures. The more quantitative easing the Fed does, the more funds are likely to trickle down to emerging markets, particularly those with attractive local bond yields. Indonesian 10-year benchmark yields were down 25.5 basis points at 6.354%, the biggest fall since March 20. Bond prices rise as yields fall. "Republican control of the Senate suggests that no major fiscal stimulus is in the offing," said Wei Liang Chang, a macro strategist at DBS bank, Singapore. "This has also led to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, which raises the attractiveness of the higher-yielding rupiah." Investors have also bought the yuan and other China-linked assets over the past two days on the view that a Biden presidency will mean a less hawkish trade and foreign policy. The yuan dipped but was still set to mark its best week in a month, while Taiwan's dollar and the Thai baht jumped 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively. After investors dumped global equities in October ahead of the election, this week has seen most stock markets rise. Malaysian shares and the ringgit were steady ahead of a 2021 budget announcement, seen as crucial for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin as he faces threats to his government. U.S. bank Citi said it expected the budget to include a 28 billion ringgit ($6.76 billion) provision for COVID-19 related matters and target boosting revenue by introducing new taxes. Trade-reliant Malaysia is in dire need of stimulus as the pandemic forced its economy into its first contraction in over a decade in the second quarter. HIGHLIGHTS ** Thailand's 10-year government bond yields are down 0.5 basis points at 1.33% ** A four-day rally in the Singapore's benchmark came to a halt as shares fell 0.5% ** Top gainers on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kl Index include Axiata Group Bhd up 2.62% and Petronas Dagangan Bhd up 2.54% Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0606 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY % FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS STOCKS DAILY % YTD % Japan -0.09 +4.88 1.01 2.93 China -0.27 +5.06 -0.73 8.06 India +0.49 -3.58 0.48 0.08 Indonesia +1.27 -2.18 0.54 -16.04 Malaysia +0.10 -1.21 0.40 -5.12 Philippines +0.11 +5.03 0.62 -14.45 S.Korea +0.45 +2.96 0.00 9.83 Singapore -0.01 -0.39 -0.45 -20.04 Taiwan +1.26 +5.58 0.42 8.14 Thailand +0.62 -2.41 -0.36 -20.26 ($1 = 4.1390 ringgit) (Editing by Patrick Graham and Rashmi Aich)

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