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India

Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

FOREX-Dollar gains on U.S. election caution, surging COVID-19 cases

12:43am IST

* Commodity currencies suffer as Brent drops over 10% on the week * Euro hits 1-month low after ECB promises more support * Volatility gauges rising ahead of U.S. election * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Recasts, adds new comments, updates prices) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Oct 30 The safe-haven dollar rose to a four-week high on Friday, moving within narrow ranges, amid jitters ahead of next week's U.S. presidential election and the continued surge in global coronavirus cases that has forced lockdowns in parts of Europe. The greenback posted its largest weekly percentage gain since late September, with investors scooping up dollars due to fears of a contested election and the economic impact of renewed lockdowns in France, Germany and some regions of Spain. The United States recorded its 9 millionth case on Friday, nearly 3% of the population, with almost 229,000 dead since the outbreak of the pandemic early this year, according to a Reuters tally of publicly reported data. Friday's economic data, meanwhile, which showed U.S. consumer spending exceeding forecasts, had little impact on the currency market. In afternoon trading, the dollar index rose 0.2% to 94.035. On the week, the index was up 1.4%, its best weekly performance in more than a month. "This could well be election jitters although we have had the election on our calendar for a long time," said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York. "It's not as if the probability outcomes have shifted very much this week, but it is possible that some people saved position squaring up to the last moment. That has pulled euro/dollar lower a little bit," he added. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1643, after sliding to a four-week low of $1.1640. The euro remains pressured overall after the European Central Bank on Thursday flagged further monetary easing in December. . FX volatility gauges for euro-dollar and most other major currencies were elevated, with that in the single currency at more than 10% on Friday. Ranko Berich, head of market analysis, at Monex Europe said a win by Democratic candidate Joe Biden over President Donald Trump could improve the outlook for U.S. macroeconomic growth due to better pandemic management, and "would be mildly positive for the dollar against G10 currencies." The greenback was little changed against the yen at 104.66 yen, after rallying overnight from a five-week trough as it benefited from a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and broad dollar buying. Some commodity currencies, meanwhile, took another spill on Friday, capping what for some was set to be their worst week since the March COVID-19 collapse. With Brent already down 10% for the week and still on the slide, traders seemed ready to sell anything linked to crude. Russia's rouble dropped 0.5% to near 80 per dollar on course for a 4% weekly drop. Norway's crown had managed to steady at 9.57 per dollar but only after a near 3.5% weekly skid, while Canada's dollar was facing its worst week since April. Against the Chinese yuan in the offshore market, the dollar fell 0.2% to 6.6945 yuan. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 3:06 PM (1906 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1645 $1.1672 -0.22% +3.88% +1.1705 +1.1640 Dollar/Yen 104.6750 104.6100 +0.01% -3.68% +104.7350 +104.1500 Euro/Yen 121.90 122.11 -0.17% -0.04% +122.4300 +121.6300 Dollar/Swiss 0.9171 0.9158 +0.14% -5.23% +0.9172 +0.9140 Sterling/Dollar 1.2956 1.2927 +0.24% -2.30% +1.2987 +1.2900 Dollar/Canadian 1.3321 1.3330 -0.09% +2.52% +1.3347 +1.3280 Aussie/Dollar 0.7026 0.7028 +0.01% +0.17% +0.7072 +0.7011 Euro/Swiss 1.0679 1.0689 -0.09% -1.59% +1.0701 +1.0672 Euro/Sterling 0.8986 0.9026 -0.44% +6.29% +0.9052 +0.8984 NZ 0.6611 0.6626 -0.21% -1.74% +0.6670 +0.6598 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 9.5495 9.5350 +0.27% +8.99% +9.5960 +9.4720 Euro/Norway 11.1241 11.1360 -0.11% +13.07% +11.2134 +11.0720 Dollar/Sweden 8.9029 8.9324 -0.53% -4.76% +8.9470 +8.8502 Euro/Sweden 10.3689 10.4238 -0.53% -0.96% +10.4410 +10.3510 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Ken Ferris)

FOREX-Dollar flat to slightly lower as investors brace for U.S. election

30 Oct 2020

* Commodity currencies suffer as Brent drops over 10% on the week * Euro settles near 1-month low after ECB promises more support * Volatility gauges rising ahead of U.S. election * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Oct 30 The dollar was little changed to slightly lower on Friday, moving in narrow ranges as investors trimmed positions ahead of next week's U.S. presidential election, although sentiment remained cautious with the continued surge in global coronavirus cases that has forced lockdowns in parts of Europe. The greenback was on track to post its largest weekly percentage gain since late September, with investors scooping up dollars amid fears of a contested election and the economic impact of renewed lockdowns in France, Germany and some regions of Spain. Friday's economic data meanwhile, which showed U.S. consumer spending exceeding forecasts, had little impact on the currency market. "The risk tone in markets is mixed as the week comes to an end with global equities still unsettled from new lockdowns announced in Europe, while bracing for what may be a contested U.S. election result next week," said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist, at Scotiabank in Toronto. In mid-morning trading, the dollar index was slightly down at 93.85. On the week, the index was up 1%, on pace for its best weekly performance in more than a month. "It is also month-end today. Our month-end models basically show a backdrop that would favor a slightly weaker dollar," said Mazen Issa, senior currency strategist, at TD Securities in New York. "The rebalancing flows more or less favor the euro and other European currencies," he added. The euro was slightly up at $1.1680, but not far from its four-week low of $1.1650. The euro remains pressured overall after the European Central Bank on Thursday flagged further monetary easing in December.. FX volatility gauges for euro-dollar and most other major currencies are now at their highest since March "We opened up pretty risk-adverse but now things seem to have settled down," said Societe Generale's Kit Juckes, though he also flagged another heavy tumble for Turkey's lira where worries of a full-blown currency crisis remain. If the next week's election result is contested by either Donald Trump or Joe Biden, or the result divides the Senate and the House of representatives between the two parties, safe-haven currencies are almost certain to gain, Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy said. The greenback was little changed against the Japanese yen at 104.64 yen, after rallying overnight from a five-week trough as it benefited from a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and broad dollar buying. Some commodity currencies, meanwhile, took another spill on Friday, capping what for some was set to be their worst week since the March COVID collapse. With Brent already down 10% for the week and still on the slide, traders seemed ready to sell anything linked to crude. Russia's rouble dropped 0.5% to near 80 per dollar on course for a 4% weekly drop. Norway's crown had managed to steady at 9.57 per dollar but only after a near 3.5% weekly skid, while Canada's dollar was facing its worst week since April. Against the Chinese yuan in the offshore market, the dollar fell 0.3% to 6.6906 yuan. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 10:48AM (1448 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1678 $1.1672 +0.04% +4.16% +1.1705 +1.1661 Dollar/Yen 104.6450 104.6100 -0.16% -3.84% +104.6650 +104.1500 Euro/Yen 122.19 122.11 +0.07% +0.20% +122.4300 +121.6300 Dollar/Swiss 0.9157 0.9158 -0.01% -5.37% +0.9168 +0.9140 Sterling/Dollar 1.2944 1.2927 +0.13% -2.41% +1.2987 +1.2900 Dollar/Canadian 1.3320 1.3330 -0.07% +2.54% +1.3345 +1.3280 Aussie/Dollar 0.7031 0.7028 +0.05% +0.21% +0.7072 +0.7011 Euro/Swiss 1.0691 1.0689 +0.02% -1.48% +1.0701 +1.0678 Euro/Sterling 0.9019 0.9026 -0.08% +6.68% +0.9052 +0.8987 NZ 0.6630 0.6626 +0.08% -1.46% +0.6670 +0.6606 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 9.5260 9.5350 -0.03% +8.66% +9.5960 +9.4720 Euro/Norway 11.1256 11.1360 -0.09% +13.09% +11.2134 +11.0720 Dollar/Sweden 8.8903 8.9324 -0.41% -4.89% +8.9470 +8.8502 Euro/Sweden 10.3813 10.4238 -0.41% -0.84% +10.4410 +10.3510 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Marc Jones in London; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Analysis: Dueling pre-election bets playing out in U.S. Treasury market

30 Oct 2020

NEW YORK The $20 trillion U.S. Treasury market is showing signs of life after months of sleepy trading, as opposing bets on how the economy will perform clash amid fresh worries over COVID-19 and jitters over Tuesday’s presidential election.

Crypto hedge funds rack up steep gains on lending surge

30 Oct 2020

NEW YORK Cryptocurrency hedge funds have posted hefty gains so far this year, benefiting from the surge in transactions that allow lenders and borrowers to transact without banks, as well as a steady rise in the bitcoin price.

Euro skids to four-week low after ECB signals further easing

30 Oct 2020

NEW YORK The euro dropped to a four-week low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank president flagged further monetary easing in December.

FOREX-Euro falls to four-week low as ECB flags easing in December

29 Oct 2020

* ECB keeps rates unchanged, but signals action in December * U.S. GDP rises at record pace in Q3 * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, adds Lagarde's comments) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Oct 29 The euro dropped to a four-week low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, after the European Central Bank president flagged further monetary easing in December. At the same time, the dollar was bolstered in part by U.S. gross domestic product data, which showed record growth for the third quarter, as well as an improving trend in jobless claims. But the market's focus was on the ECB, analysts said, as Europe grapples with the surge in COVID-19 cases that forced national lockdowns in Germany and France and a regional lockdown Spain. The ECB, which kept interest rates steady, committed on Thursday to contain the growing fallout from a second wave of coronavirus infections, saying it would hone its response by its December meeting. "We agreed, all of us, that it was necessary to take action and therefore to recalibrate our instruments at our next Governing Council meeting," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a news conference. Erik Bregar, head of FX strategy at Exchange Bank of Canada in Toronto, said the euro's fall was "a reflection of further monetary easing from the ECB." In late morning trading, the euro fell 0.6% to $1.1681, after earlier falling to a four-week low of $1.1675. The euro also fell 0.4% versus the yen to 122.03 yen. Rapidly rising COVID-19 infection rates in Europe, along with caution ahead of the U.S. elections, triggered the worst market sell-off since June earlier this week. The dollar index, with the euro as the largest component, rose to a four-week high and was last up 0.4% at 93.81. The greenback slightly benefited from data showing record growth pace in U.S. GDP for the third quarter. Gross domestic product rebounded at a 33.1% annualized rate last quarter, according to an advance estimate, the fastest pace since the government started keeping records in 1947. That followed a historic shrinkage rate of 31.4% in the second quarter. A separate report showed 751,000 people filed for state unemployment benefits in the week ended Oct. 24, compared with 791,000 in the previous period. "Although the data...appears healthy, it should be taken with a grain of salt," said Matthew Eidinger, market strategist, at Cambridge Global Payments, as he cited rise in U.S. COVID-19 cases. "The rapid rise in new infections threatens to reroute the economic recovery effort through a second lockdown and potentially, a double dip recession," he added. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.25 to 104.46 yen. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 11:03 AM (1503 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1682 $1.1746 -0.54% +4.20% +1.1759 +1.1675 Dollar/Yen 104.4700 104.3250 +0.12% -3.84% +104.5000 +104.0300 Euro/Yen 122.03 122.52 -0.40% +0.07% +122.8700 +121.9000 Dollar/Swiss 0.9150 0.9104 +0.49% -5.45% +0.9152 +0.9089 Sterling/Dollar 1.2924 1.2979 -0.41% -2.54% +1.3025 +1.2901 Dollar/Canadian 1.3338 1.3322 +0.13% +2.68% +1.3389 +1.3279 Aussie/Dollar 0.7039 0.7048 -0.11% +0.33% +0.7076 +0.7010 Euro/Swiss 1.0688 1.0692 -0.04% -1.53% +1.0702 +1.0679 Euro/Sterling 0.9036 0.9045 -0.10% +6.88% +0.9059 +0.9008 NZ 0.6630 0.6637 -0.09% -1.46% +0.6659 +0.6611 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 9.5180 9.3640 +1.63% +8.49% +9.5855 +9.3345 Euro/Norway 11.1170 11.0070 +1.00% +13.01% +11.2075 +10.9495 Dollar/Sweden 8.9114 8.8264 +0.16% -4.66% +8.9263 +8.8260 Euro/Sweden 10.4108 10.3941 +0.16% -0.56% +10.4345 +10.3755 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

U.S. dollar gains on surge in COVID-19 cases, lockdowns in Europe

29 Oct 2020

NEW YORK The safe-haven dollar rose on Wednesday, pushing the euro to one-week lows, on news of lockdowns in Germany and France as coronavirus cases surged, with implied volatility gauges in the European currency and the yen hitting multi-month highs as traders positioned for next Tuesday's U.S. election.

FOREX-U.S. dollar gains on rising COVID-19 cases, lockdown risk in Europe

28 Oct 2020

* Germany, France to announce restrictions as COVID cases rise * Implied volatility rises in yen, euro * Yen rises to 1-month high vs dollar, 3-month high vs euro * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Adds new comment, FX table, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Oct 28 The safe-haven dollar rose on Wednesday, pushing the euro to one-week lows on prospects of a national lockdown in Germany and France as coronavirus cases surged, with implied volatility gauges in the common currency and the yen hitting multi-month highs as traders positioned for next Tuesday's U.S. election. Germany and France were preparing to announce restrictions approaching the level of last spring's blanket lockdowns on Wednesday as COVID-19 deaths across Europe rose almost 40% in a week, while financial markets tumbled on fears of the likely economic costs. The European Commission proposed on Wednesday a series of new measures to fight the COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union, saying the new spike in infections on the continent was "alarming". Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York, said rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and around the world and the potential for renewed lockdowns have dented the market's appetite for risk. With news that Pfizer Inc has not yet been able to determine how well its late-phase COVID-19 vaccine protects against the disease adding to the cautious mood, riskier assets fell across markets. At the same time, traders are bracing for volatility going into and after the U.S. election. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads Republican President Donald Trump nationally by 10 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. "We are seeing some position-trimming ahead of the election, with the market still short dollars," said UBS' Serebriakov. "The expectation is for a Biden presidency and that is consistent with a weaker dollar story. But as some of the polls have tightened the last couple of days, markets are just taking some risk off the table given the uncertainty," he added. The UBS strategist said a Biden administration is seen de-escalating trade tensions with traditional allies such as Europe and Canada, as well as China, which should improve market sentiment overall and weigh on the dollar as a safe haven. In midmorning trading, the euro was down 0.5% against the dollar at $1.1736, after sliding to a one-week low. The dollar though slipped 0.1% against the yen to 104.33 yen. Earlier, the greenback dropped to a more than one-month low. The euro also fell 0.6% against yen to 122.44 yen, after earlier sinking to its weakest since July. One-week implied volatility gauges in euro and yen rose to their highest in nearly seven months. That suggests investors are preparing for sharp price moves, with the biggest focus on the United States as it struggles to contain its coronavirus epidemic ahead of the pivotal election next Tuesday. Legal battles between Republicans and Democrats over how to count votes have raised the risk that the outcome of the election will be disputed. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.3% at 93.45. Elsewhere, the British pound fell 0.7% versus the dollar to $1.2958. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:58AM (1358 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1735 $1.1796 -0.51% +4.68% +1.1799 +1.1718 Dollar/Yen 104.3250 104.4350 -0.09% -3.94% +104.5500 +104.1700 Euro/Yen 122.42 123.14 -0.58% +0.39% +123.1800 +122.1900 Dollar/Swiss 0.9110 0.9088 +0.25% -5.84% +0.9127 +0.9086 Sterling/Dollar 1.2953 1.3047 -0.76% -2.38% +1.3063 +1.2918 Dollar/Canadian 1.3280 1.3187 +0.71% +2.23% +1.3295 +1.3180 Aussie/Dollar 0.7060 0.7129 -0.97% +0.62% +0.7157 +0.7050 Euro/Swiss 1.0690 1.0716 -0.24% -1.49% +1.0719 +1.0687 Euro/Sterling 0.9058 0.9041 +0.19% +7.13% +0.9076 +0.9015 NZ 0.6645 0.6708 -0.92% -1.23% +0.6719 +0.6638 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 9.3475 9.1920 +1.70% +6.57% +9.3825 +9.2100 Euro/Norway 10.9700 10.8310 +1.28% +11.51% +10.9985 +10.8002 Dollar/Sweden 8.8295 8.7226 +0.70% -5.54% +8.8579 +8.7200 Euro/Sweden 10.3610 10.2887 +0.70% -1.03% +10.3827 +10.2700 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Olga Cotaga in London; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Dollar retreats amid COVID-19, U.S. election uncertainty

28 Oct 2020

NEW YORK The U.S. dollar slipped on Tuesday as investors took some profits after the previous session's gains that also saw a sell-off in equities, while worries persisted about a second coronavirus wave and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. election.

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