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India

Tom Westbrook

As China's yuan becomes a Biden election play, PBOC pushes back

30 Oct 2020

SINGAPORE/SHANGHAI Speculative bets that Joe Biden will win the White House on Nov. 3 and bring a steadier tone to rocky Sino-U.S. relations have turbocharged the strongest yuan rally in years, and Chinese authorities have started pushing back.

Analysis: As China's yuan becomes a Biden election play, PBOC pushes back

30 Oct 2020

SINGAPORE/SHANGHAI Speculative bets that Joe Biden will win the White House on Nov. 3 and bring a steadier tone to rocky Sino-U.S. relations have turbocharged the strongest yuan rally in years, and Chinese authorities have started pushing back.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia's COVID-19 control tempers global stock selloff, U.S. futures jump

29 Oct 2020

* E-mini S&P 500 futures rise 1%, oil steadies, dollar gains pause

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia's COVID control tempers global stock selloff, U.S. futures jump

29 Oct 2020

* E-mini S&P 500 futures rise 1%, oil steadies, dollar gains pause

Offshore yuan one-week implied volatility spikes ahead of U.S. elections

28 Oct 2020

SHANGHAI, Oct 28 The one-week implied volatility on offshore yuan rose to a high of 10.950 on Wednesday, its highest level since Jan. 7, 2016, ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. elections. (Reporting by Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

Ant Group to close Hong Kong institutional book early amid 'overwhelming' demand for IPO - sources

27 Oct 2020

HONG KONG Ant Group will close institutional order books of the Hong Kong portion of its record-setting dual IPO ahead of schedule due to strong demand, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.

FOREX-Dollar retreats again in Asia as solid data offsets virus worries

27 Oct 2020

* Bright data lifts Asian currencies, weighs on dollar * AUD, NZD resilient as FX traders wait-and-see ahead of election * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE, Oct 27 The dollar handed back some recent gains against most of its major rivals on Tuesday, as strong regional economic data helped to offset worries about a second wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States. Profits at China's industrial firms rose for a fifth straight month in September and South Korea's economy roared back to growth, official data showed. That supported the yuan and sent the won soaring close to a seven-month peak. It also unwound some of the previous day's modest dollar gains against major currencies amid an equities selloff driven by a resurgence in coronavirus infections. Against a basket of currencies the dollar fell 0.1%. It was lower by about the same margin on the euro, yen and pound and it slipped a little bit further against the Aussie and kiwi. "Trade numbers in Asia have been improving. Most countries are now reporting positive year-on-year export growth. For now, that is helping to offset nervousness about the COVID outbreaks in Europe," said ANZ's head of Asia research Khoon Goh. "It's the export-oriented currencies that are outperforming in Asia," he said. The Canadian dollar also recovered some of Monday's selloff as the price of oil stabilised. Christopher Wong, senior FX strategist at Maybank in Singapore, said the region's firm handle on the coronavirus, especially in North Asia, was also a positive factor, with Japan, Singapore, South Korea and China combined posting fewer than a thousand new cases a day through October. That compares with the United States, Russia and France, all of which hit fresh records with tens of thousands of new daily coronavirus infections this week. Europe needs a "serious acceleration" in the fight against the coronavirus, with the spectre of further shutdowns looming, a top World Health Organization official said on Monday. POLL POSITION Growing wariness about the U.S. presidential election kept a lid on large currency movements, however. Since the vote is just a week away many investors appear to have already figured out their positions. Data shows long bets on the yen shrank for a fourth straight week last week, as investors wagered on a victory for Democrat Joe Biden, though short bets against the yen also fell - pointing to heightened uncertainty around the vote. "People are wary of putting on fresh positions given the event risk," said Mayank Mishra, an FX strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. "Price action over the next one week may remain choppy," he said. "The view we've taken is that the medium-term dollar bearish dynamics remain in place, irrespective of who comes to the White House. The short-term part may be affected by the outcome, and we believe that a Biden win is likely to accelerate the dollar downside." If the Democrats also secure the Senate, a Biden-led administration is likely to press for a larger coronavirus aid package, lifting sentiment, widening the U.S. current account deficit and weakening the dollar. Ahead on Tuesday, investors are looking to U.S. consumer confidence figures and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index at 1400 GMT, as well as the progress of the virus in Europe and the United States. Elsewhere, the Taiwan dollar rose by as much as 1% in Asia to a more than nine-year high. The Turkish lira hit a record low on Monday amid a slew of geopolitical concerns and as a surprise central bank decision to keep its policy rate on hold last week reveberates through markets. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 12:25PM (425 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1824 $1.1810 +0.12% +5.47% +1.1825 +1.1805 Dollar/Yen 104.7300 104.8500 -0.09% -3.55% +104.8800 +104.7600 Euro/Yen 123.82 123.80 +0.02% +1.53% +123.9000 +123.7100 Dollar/Swiss 0.9067 0.9078 -0.12% -6.30% +0.9082 +0.9064 Sterling/Dollar 1.3037 1.3022 +0.11% -1.71% +1.3039 +1.3016 Dollar/Canadian 1.3181 1.3213 -0.24% +1.46% +1.3211 +1.3181 Aussie/Dollar 0.7133 0.7123 +0.14% +1.66% +0.7137 +0.7116 NZ 0.6691 0.6678 +0.21% -0.55% +0.6693 +0.6675 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Tom Westbrook Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

FOREX-Dollar holds small gains as markets buffeted by COVID-19 woes, election uncertainty

27 Oct 2020

* Covid second-wave worries lift dollar modestly * AUD, NZD resilient as FX traders wait-and-see ahead of election * Sino-U.S. tensions drive yuan drop * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE, Oct 27 The dollar clung to small gains on Tuesday as the greenback's safe-haven appeal was burnished by worries about a second wave of COVID-19, which drove the steepest stock market selloff in a month and underpinned a bond rally. The United States, Russia and France all hit new daily records for coronavirus infections and overnight the S&P 500 index fell 1.9% and Germany's DAX dropped 3.7%. Moves in the currency market were more muted, though the dollar index lifted about 0.3% overnight and held there early in Asia trade while regional equities fell. The largest gains for the greenback on Monday came against the, up 0.4%, which was hit by a drop in German business confidence, and a 0.7% rise on the Canadian dollar as oil prices slumped. The yuan nursed a 0.5% loss as Sino-U.S. tensions flared over arms sales to Taiwan. "The dollar is broadly stronger, but not massively," said National Australia Bank senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril. Structural forces, like low real yields, have held back further gains, he added, and so has a wait-and-see approach to the U.S. election. "I think many would probably remember the bad experiences we had going in to the Trump-Clinton election (in 2016)," said Catril. "If you had a position on, you would have been whipsawed big time. I think the strategy this time is to travel light, and to choose the opportunity on the day rather than take on a very, very strong position going into the election." The usually risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars dipped only marginally overnight and were firm in the early part of the Asia session. The Japanese yen did not move much as U.S. equities sold off, and was steady at 104.76 per dollar in Asia. Sterling slipped overnight but was back above $1.30 on Tuesday. A week out from polling day, national polls give Democrat Joe Biden a solid lead but the contest is much tighter in battleground states that could decide the outcome. Biden and President Donald Trump both spent Monday campaigning in Pennsylvania. Analysts regard a Biden victory, and especially Democrat control of the Senate, as negative for the dollar since it is expected to deliver big stimulus spending that would boost investor sentiment and drive demand for riskier currencies. Positioning data showed long bets on the yen shrank for a fourth straight week last week, as investors wagered on a Biden victory, though short bets against the yen also fell - pointing to heightened uncertainty around the vote. The euro nursed losses at $1.1809, having borne the brunt of worries about fresh coronavirus lockdowns and slipping after the German Ifo business climate index fell by more than expected and for the first time in six months in October. Traders are waiting for any news to emerge from a meeting of China's Communist Party leaders to set the next five-year plan, while keeping a wary eye on the potential fallout from U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. China said it will impose sanctions on Lockheed Martin , Boeing Defense and Raytheon. Elsewhere the Turkish lira hit a record low on Monday amid a slew of geopolitical concerns and as a surprise central bank decision to keep its policy rate on hold last week reveberates through markets. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 8:31AM (031 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1814 $1.1810 +0.04% +5.38% +1.1815 +1.1805 Dollar/Yen 104.8100 104.8500 +0.00% -3.47% +104.8800 +0.0000 Euro/Yen 123.81 123.80 +0.01% +1.53% +123.8600 +123.7100 Dollar/Swiss 0.9076 0.9078 -0.01% -6.20% +0.9082 +0.9077 Sterling/Dollar 1.3021 1.3022 +0.02% -1.80% +1.3023 +1.3016 Dollar/Canadian 1.3196 1.3213 -0.10% +1.61% +1.3211 +1.3199 Aussie/Dollar 0.7129 0.7123 +0.10% +1.62% +0.7132 +0.7116 NZ 0.6683 0.6678 +0.12% -0.64% +0.6686 +0.6675 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Tom Westbrook Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

FOREX-Dollar firm as virus' spread and stimulus stalemate raise caution

26 Oct 2020

* Dollar makes small broad gains in Asia * Sterling steady as Brexit breakthrough hopes support * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE, Oct 26 The dollar found support on Monday, as surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States and a lack of progress toward a U.S. stimulus package put traders in a cautious mood, although hopes for a Brexit trade deal held sterling steady. Against a basket of currencies, the greenback trod water in the Asia session, after having fallen broadly last week. Against the risk-sensitive Australian dollar and against the euro it gained about 0.2%. Sterling, however, held firm at $1.3024. The United States has recorded its highest ever number of new COVID-19 cases for two consecutive days and so has France. Spain announced a new state of emergency and Italy has ordered restaurants and bars to shut by 6 p.m. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that she expected a White House response on Monday regarding the latest stimulus spending plan, but there have been few tangible signs that a long-stalled deal is actually nearer. "The combination of receding hopes for a pre-election fiscal deal and the news on COVID and potentially stricter lockdowns is enough to take a bite out of the stock market," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank. He said half-percent dip in S&P 500 futures had spilled over into currency markets, where traders are also in a cautious mood ahead of the U.S. election on Nov. 3. The Japanese yen slipped a fraction on the firmer dollar to 104.85 per dollar and other Asian currencies also traded a touch lower. Hopes for a breakthrough in the trade-deal stalemate between Britain and Europe held the pound steady above $1.30. Over the weekend, Britain's Northern Island minister said there was a good chance of a trade deal. BLUE WAVES AND CENBANKS The week ahead holds three major central bank meetings and the final sprint to the polls in the United States. The Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are expected to hold fire for now, while the market assumes the European Central Bank will sound cautious on inflation and growth, even if it skips a further easing on Thursday. "The risk is that ECB President Christine Lagarde strikes a dovish tone during her post-meeting press conference," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency analyst Joe Capurso. "If President Lagarde emphasises the downside risks facing the Eurozone economy, the counter-cyclical dollar can rise." Analysts also reckon that a Joe Biden victory next week, especially if the Democrats win control of the Senate, would likely herald a large U.S. stimulus package. But investors are treading carefully. "I think that the dollar is now as polarised as it gets," said Diego Parrilla, chief investment officer of Quadriga Igneo, a fund designed to profit in market turmoil. "On the one hand, we have a very clear will from the Fed and the U.S. government to print and borrow their way out of the problem," he said, weakening the outlook for the dollar. "But it's almost like the more consensus you get and the bigger the position, you will see also big reversals, and my personal view is that the dollar remains a good thing to own during periods of stress." Elsewhere, China's top leaders chart the country's economic course for 2021-2025 at a key meeting starting on Monday, and may adopt a lower or more flexible growth target. The yuan, which has soared more than 7% since May as China has led the world's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, edged lower with the broader mood to 6.6852 per dollar. Later on Monday, investors are watching for a German sentiment survey at 0900 GMT, following a robust Purchasing Managers' Index figure last week, and U.S. housing data, due at 1400 GMT. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 11:43AM (343 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1834 $1.1862 -0.24% +5.56% +1.1859 +1.1833 Dollar/Yen 104.8550 104.8000 +0.07% -3.44% +104.8850 +104.6750 Euro/Yen 124.08 124.19 -0.09% +1.75% +124.2200 +123.9800 Dollar/Swiss 0.9051 0.9040 +0.13% -6.46% +0.9053 +0.9044 Sterling/Dollar 1.3026 1.3039 -0.10% -1.79% +1.3062 +1.3026 Dollar/Canadian 1.3154 1.3124 +0.21% +1.23% +1.3161 +1.3123 Aussie/Dollar 0.7115 0.7137 -0.29% +1.42% +0.7142 +0.7116 NZ 0.6682 0.6692 -0.13% -0.68% +0.6694 +0.6677 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Tom Westbrook; editing by Richard Pullin & Shri Navaratnam)

FOREX-Dollar firm as virus' spread and stimulus stalemate spur caution

26 Oct 2020

* Dollar makes small broad gains early in Asia * Sterling steady as Brexit breakthrough hopes support * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE, Oct 26 The dollar found support on Monday, as surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States and a lack of progress toward a U.S. stimulus package put traders in a cautious mood, although hopes for a Brexit trade deal held sterling steady. Against a basket of currencies, the greenback traded between steady and slightly firmer early in the Asia session, hovering around the middle of a range it has held for months. Against the risk-sensitive Australian dollar and New Zealand dollars, it gained about 0.1%. Sterling, however, rose a tiny bit to $1.3046. The United States has recorded its highest ever number of new COVID-19 cases for two consecutive days, while Italy has ordered restaurants and bars to shut by 6 p.m. as a fresh wave of infections sweeps Europe. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that she expected a White House response on Monday regarding the latest stimulus spending plan - but there have been few tangible signs that a long-stalled deal is actually nearer. "The combination of receding hopes for a pre-election fiscal deal and the news on COVID and potentially stricter lockdowns is enough to take a bite out of the stock market," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank. He said a dip in S&P 500 futures had spilled over into currency markets, where traders are also in a cautious mood ahead of the U.S. election on Nov. 3. The safe-haven Japanese yen edged higher to 104.72 per dollar and the euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1848. Analysts reckon that a Joe Biden victory next week, especially if the Democrats win control of the Senate, would likely herald a large U.S. stimulus package and weaken the dollar as the spending improves market sentiment. "There's nothing to suggest that Biden's poll gap is narrowing, but you can expect that the risk tone can become a bit more cautious as we get closer to next Tuesday," Attrill said from Sydney. "But against that, there is a view that I would concur with, that if by the middle of next week we have got a clean Biden win ... the short-term reaction to that will be very risk positive and U.S.-dollar negative." The slight dip in the Aussie came despite early support after the announcement of a $6.6 billion all-cash takeover bid from Coca-Cola European Partners for local bottler Coca-Cola Amatil. Elsewhere hopes for a breakthrough in the trade-deal stalemate between Britain and Europe held the pound steady above $1.30. Over the weekend, Britain's Northern Island minister said there was a good chance of a trade deal. Later on Monday, investors will follow a German sentiment survey at 0900 GMT, following a robust Purchasing Managers' Index figure last week, and U.S. housing data, due at 1400 GMT. China's top leaders chart the country's economic course for 2021-2025 at a key meeting starting on Monday, and may adopt a lower or more flexible growth target. The yuan, which has soared more than 7% since May as China has led the world's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, was steady in offshore trade at 6.6631 per dollar. The Malaysian ringgit opened a fraction firmer on Monday after King Al-Sultan Abdullah rejected on Sunday a request by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin for him to declare a state of emergency. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 8:12AM (012 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1848 $1.1862 -0.12% +5.68% +1.1859 +1.1840 Dollar/Yen 104.7000 104.8000 +0.00% -3.51% +104.7500 +0.0000 Euro/Yen 124.04 124.19 -0.12% +1.71% +124.2200 +123.9800 Dollar/Swiss 0.9045 0.9040 +0.09% -6.49% +0.9051 +0.9048 Sterling/Dollar 1.3050 1.3039 +0.09% -1.60% +1.3062 +1.3043 Dollar/Canadian 1.3144 1.3124 +0.17% +1.19% +1.3161 +1.3123 Aussie/Dollar 0.7133 0.7137 -0.06% +1.65% +0.7142 +0.7116 NZ 0.6684 0.6692 -0.10% -0.65% +0.6688 +0.6677 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Tom Westbrook; editing by Richard Pullin)

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