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9 months ago
UPDATE 1-U.S. dollar net longs hit 10-month high; specs turn short yen -CFTC, Reuters
December 2, 2016 / 9:31 PM / 9 months ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. dollar net longs hit 10-month high; specs turn short yen -CFTC, Reuters

(Adds table, details on dollar, yen contracts, analyst
comments, byline)
    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
    Dec 2 (Reuters) - Speculators boosted positive bets on the
U.S. dollar for a second straight week, with net longs rising to
their highest since mid-January.
    The value of the dollar's net long position rose to $24.82
billion in the week ended Nov. 29 from $22.25 billion the
previous week, according to Reuters calculations and data from
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
    Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which showed job
gains of 178,000 last month, underwhelmed investors because of
downward revisions to the previous two months and a drop in
average hourly earnings. 
    That should not, however, deter the Federal Reserve from
raising interest rates this month, but the tightening pace could
slow after that, said Kathy Lien, managing director or FX
strategy at  BK Asset Management in New York.
    The dollar's gains could ease going into next year as a
result.
    "The U.S. dollar has had a great run but after Friday's data
the uptrend is exhausting with the market fully discounting a
25-basis-point rate hike," Lien said. "As the rate decision
nears, we could see more two-way action in the currency."
    For the year, the dollar index still shows a gain of
2 percent.
    Speculators, meanwhile, turned net short on the Japanese yen
for the first time since last December to 269 short contracts,
from net long contracts of 10,900 the previous week.
    The yen has struggled in the wake of the dollar's recent
surge. It did get a reprieve on Friday with the dollar pulling
back a little bit, but the outlook, both fundamental and
technical, remained skewed in the greenback's favor.
    "The safe-haven Japanese yen has remained in severe pullback
mode as equity markets have continued to maintain the 'Trump
Rally' and OPEC-driven risk in the energy markets has instantly
dissipated," said James Chen, head of research at Forex.com in
Bedminster, New Jersey.
    OPEC on Thursday agreed to cut daily crude oil production by
more than a million barrels to 32.5 million barrels. Oil prices
immediately rose on the OPEC news, spurring a risk rally across
the board.
    Chen added that if dollar/yen is able to maintain
above 114.00 yen, strong upside momentum for the dollar and a
lagging yen could push the pair towards its next major
resistance targets at 116.00 and 118.00.
    The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from net positions of International Monetary
Market speculators in the yen, euro, sterling, Swiss franc and
Canadian and Australian dollars.
  
 Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen) 
 $-1.226 billion
         29 Nov 2016            Prior week
         week             
 Long             72,124            71,183
 Short            72,393            60,283
 Net                -269            10,900
 
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
 $15.849 billion
         29 Nov 2016            Prior week
         week             
 Long            136,108           127,122
 Short           255,348           246,470
 Net            -119,240          -119,348
 
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
 $5.77 billion
         29 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             50,806           54,209
 Short           128,941          128,527
 Net             -78,135          -74,318
 
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
 $2.832 billion
         29 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             13,027            9,515
 Short            37,361           32,415
 Net             -24,334          -22,900
 
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
 $1.299 billion
         29 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             25,010           28,260
 Short            43,586           45,722
 Net             -18,576          -17,462
 
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
 $-2.272 billion 
         29 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             54,791           63,488
 Short            33,834           32,783
 Net              20,957           30,705
 
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
 $1.174 billion
         29 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             19,314           19,884
 Short            73,814           68,198
 Net             -54,500          -48,314
 
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
 $0.038 billion 
         29 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             30,231           31,779
 Short            32,103           32,312
 Net              -1,872             -533
 
 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Diane Craft
and James Dalgleish)

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