Malaysia's dull poll campaign could spring surprise

By Mark Bendeich and Jalil Hamid

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia votes on Saturday and the ruling coalition is virtually assured of victory, but there are signs a few painful surprises could still be in store.

The campaign has been dull even by standards of Malaysian democracy, which has never seen a change of government. But this does not necessarily portend another easy victory for the Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition, political experts said on Thursday.

A sharply reduced majority could threaten Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's leadership and lead to a purge of Barisan, its cabinet line-up and policy platform, they said.

"Every party in the Barisan, especially the key component parties, will face a reckoning as a result of this election," said political scientist Bridget Welsh, of Johns Hopkins University, who is in Malaysia for the election.

Barisan's main threat comes from the minority ethnic Indian and Chinese communities, which make up a third of the population.

They have shown clear signs of discontent with the coalition, which is dominated by the ethnic Malay majority, and have been quietly turning up in droves to night-time opposition rallies during the past two weeks of campaigning.

"The attendance of Chinese and Indian voters at opposition rallies seems to be overwhelming, much higher than in previous elections," said pollster Ibrahim Suffian, of local market-research firm, the Merdeka Center.

Barisan concedes that a protest vote by Chinese and Indians could cost them some seats. But neither the coalition, the opposition parties nor the pundits seem sure of just how many.